2024- The Year of the Third Party?

Voters are Straying From the Major Parties; Why?

You may be thinking, “There’s a lot of people running as independent and third party candidates this year.” It may be surprising for you to know that in 2016 (we’re skipping the 2020 election because COVID made it difficult for anyone to campaign really), there were a total of 1,760 different people who filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for President that year. Now, many of those failed to ever appear on a ballot anywhere, and more still failed to win their party’s nomination wittling the total down even further. In the end, only 8 candidates appeared on over 15% of all general election ballots. Those were:

• Donald Trump, Republican Party Candidate

• Hillary Clinton, Democratic Party Candidate

• Jill Stein, Green Party Candidate

• Gary Johnson, Libertarian Party Candidate

• Darrell Lane Castle, Constitution Party Candidate

• Rocky De La Fuente, Reform Party Candidate

• Evan McMullin, Independent

• Gloria Estela La Riva, Socialist Party Candidate

So it’s not uncommon to see a number of people running for President. If you live in a state like Wisconsin, which has pretty lax minimal standards for ballot access, you may see up to 15 or so candidates. Other states with stricter ballot access may only have the major party candidates, and perhaps one or two of the others.

What makes the coming election unique relates more to the quality of the candidates contemplating third party and independent bids for the White House. The usual cabal of also-rans and afterthoughts usually don’t garner the attention or imagination of the electorate. The last Third Party candidate to get over 15% of the popular vote in any election was Ross Perot in 1992. The last one to earn an Electoral Vote was George Wallace in 1968. Currently, we have one Independent candidate polling above 20%, and another potential candidate with over 80% name ID, whose party most likely will achieve ballot access in all 50 states. Add into the mix the usual melange of fringe and Third Party candidates and 2024 has the makings to be a real electoral clusterf**k.

So why this year? It’s actually very simple. Neither party is having a conventional primary this time around leaving most voters disenchanted with their options.

Let’s start with the Dems; the incumbent President usually has a relatively clear path to his party’s nomination. In Biden’s case, he’s seen as an old and physically weak candidate, so there is a party interest in not forcing too much on his physical demands. However, if you ask every Democrat in Washington, they are nervous about a lot of things with Biden, especially his age. Usually, these kind of questions work their way out in the primary process. Until Dean Phillips got into the race late, the Dem Primaries were going to be a coronation, not a contest. We’ll see how it works, but Biden should still cruise to the nomination.

On the Republican side, they have the aura of an actual primary process, but Trump is so clearly going to be the nominee that those running aren’t even running for 2nd place (who Trump will choose), and are barely competing for participation trophies. Trump doesn’t even show up for the debates, showing how much he takes them seriously. To be sure, many Republicans dislike Trump and wish someone, anyone else was the party’s nominee; however, the party rank and file and the grassroots love him, and no one else can make inroads with them.

So since both of the two major parties are closed off to challenges, candidates are considering alternative routes to the White House. This is where the Third Parties come in.

• In the case of Robert F. Kennedy Jr, the Democratic Party, of which he had been a part of his entire life, showed no sign of aligning with his campaign. He’s an anti-vaxxer, former Representative (who never accomplished much) trying to take down the President, a member of his own party. His name identification allows him a path through an independent bid, and since announcing, he has consistently been above 20%.

• The “No Labels” Party has received criticism as a Third Party, since their target voters are disaffected Republicans cast out from the MAGA tribe and the moderate Democrats, uninterested in the direction the progressive Dems are taking their party. The better No Labels does, the more likely Trump wins election, which scares a lot of Americans considering the stakes involved. With Joe Manchin announcing he won’t run for Senate re-election next year, No Labels has an ideal candidate to run to appeal to these voters. It remains to be seen if they will get behind the No Labels effort or Manchin.

• Jill Stein is always an also-ran candidate. The Greens Party typically has appealed to the far left fringe of the Democratic Party; think Ralph Nader poaching enough votes in 2000 in Florida to deprive Al Gore from winning the election. Lately though, the Greens have been funded with a lot of Russian money, and have began spouting pro-Russian propaganda, especially when it comes to Ukraine. It remains to be seen what kind of coalition results with this change in direction.

• Long time Socialist Cornel West, an icon to African Americans for decades and a cornerstone on the pundit circuit is also running. Dems worry that he can peel off enough African- American voters in certain areas that it may deprive Biden of the Electoral Vote wins he needs to get to 270.

• There are also the usual Libertarian Party, Constitution Party and various Issue-Oriented Parties that compete in various states. Libertarians always make a nice run in states like Nevada and out west, but also do well in states that sway hard to the Right or the Left.

Collectively, Third Parties are collecting roughly 30% of the vote, which is sizeable, driven largely right now by RFK, JR’s campaign. Surprisingly, he seems to be pulling more at the moment from Republicans than Democrats. But as I continue to point out, the popular vote doesn’t matter— the Electoral Vote does. Where those votes are distributed across the country is what matters.

Pundits are screaming bloody murder that any third party candidate helps Trump. That may be so. But I want to put this out there just to demonstrate that nobody really knows how this would play out. In 1980, when the Conservative Republican Ronald Reagan took the nomination, liberal Republican (yes, there were liberal Republicans once upon a time) John Anderson split from the party to run as a Third Party candidate. Many said that Anderson’s campaign was the death knell to Reagan, and a gift to Carter, since he would take primarily Republican votes away from Reagan. In fact, Anderson pulled in a paltry 6.6 million votes, many of them protest votes against Reagan AND Carter, and Reagan cruised to a 489-49 Electoral Vote shellacking. A year out from the Presidential Election, a lot can happen. If the economy stays hot, the country breaks its malaise, Trump goes to jail, and a host of other events happen, Biden can ride the momentum all the way to an easy second term with or without Third Party Candidates in the mix.

Which brings me to the last point I want to make about Third Parties. They almost always fade. Once the campaign season goes into full swing and then they take on fire from both sides, their support drops like a lead balloon. Going back to Perot in 1992, what is often forgotten is that the day before the Democratic Convention, Perot suspended his race. He stayed out of the limelight during the conventions of both the major parties and let them spend time hitting each other over and over again. Then, in late August, Perot stepped back in; he was already on the ballot in all 50 states so it was no problem to start campaigning again. His numbers came right back up and he made a run of it. Had he stayed in the whole time, it’s unlikely we would be talking about him today.

PurpleAmerica’s Cultural Corner

I’m just going to post this without further comment.

PurpleAmerica’s Obscure Fact of the Day

To date, only one “third party” has proven successful to win the White House. That would be the newly formed Republican Party in 1860, cobbled together from the collapse of the Whig Party (over abolition) a few years prior. When the Union won the Civil War, Republican power was ascendent and between 1860 and 1912, they would only lose the Presidential election twice (Grover Cleveland’s non-consecutive terms).

PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject

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