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Brian Frantz's avatar

Thanks for this. I do think it's important to be clear eyed about the damage and danger but also agree that we need some perspective. This is bad, and if cooler heads don't prevail for months, really bad. But it's also so harmful to the real economy that I think you're right to expect he'll cave eventually. He does love tariffs, but he loves his ego more. And I agree, the moment he realizes this is tanking his popularity and Republicans realize they no longer need to be afraid of his voters because they're turning on him, he'll find someone to blame and reverse. At least, that's what I'm counting on. I do believe this was what needed to happen to durably invalidate right-wing populism in America, and Noah Smith's last post made me consider it might come with a side benefit of invalidating the far left's opposition to free trade and neo- liberalism.

I still think we're headed for a recession and the damage to America's standing in the world is also going to take years, maybe decades, to repair. That's serious. But we'll also survive as long as we don't lose our minds. I appreciate that JVL's cynicism has been proven right over and over again, but cynicism isn't how we get out of this. It's a challenge for me to not focus on the outrages of the week on my own Substack (shameless plug) because I do think they are historically significant and I find it cathartic to go on record against it. But I do want to zoom back and focus on the big picture more. Thanks for the reminder to do that.

Glad you had a great vacation!

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Andrei Petrovitch's avatar

Wonderful. All of us need to step back and take a breath.

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