Handicapping the DC Derby- GOP Stakes Race (Pt 2).
We're at the Quarter Pole to the Nomination; How is the Race Shaping Up?
We’ve passed the Quarter Pole to the GOP nomination and the horses are coming out of the first turn and striding into the backstretch. Things are going to pick up here now that its a straight path right up to the Iowa Caucuses and the half way point. Despite the gloomy clouds and the overcast, it hasn’t been too sloppy yet, but all that’s about to change as the first signs of downpour and deluge rear their ugly head.
So what’s the field look like at this point?
Well, Trotting Trump has opened up a huge lead; about four lengths as I can tell. This thoroughbred has always been an excellent mudder too, so if the rain does start to downpour, he should be OK while others may wallow in the mire. With so much of the race left though, not sure if he can keep that lead or if he’ll tire in the backstretch. In addition, Trump has had a history of inquiries and DQs so regardless of how well he runs, he may be nixed by racing officials. There’s a lot of race left and we’ll have to wait and see if this horse can handle the distance. For the time being, he looks like Secretariat. If he can do it he may be the next American Pharoah, claiming the Triple Crown with the nomination in three straight contests.
A few lengths back we have a five horse peloton of DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Haley, Christie and Pence.
Ramaswamy is leading the group of horses by a nose right now. This young colt has a lot of those in the grandstands excited, and the GOP stakes has a history of longshots taking the lead at some point only to fall back into the pack. At 99:1 his chances of actually winning are slim to none and you can expect him to fade. However, so long as he’s making a run, he gives this race a small sense of excitement to see what he can do here and in future races.
The rest of the horses are keeping apace with their eyes straight forward at the leaders backside. None of them seem to be boxing out each other yet but Christie has a history of bouncing around like a bowling ball and he may begin to squeeze the others up against the rail from the outside for advantage. So far, he made some moves and long strides toward Trump but has failed to gain the traction. Christie though may be the best mudder on the field next to Trump, and if the mud starts to fly, look to these two horses to duke it out to the end.
The most impressive horse in the race so far has been the filly Nikki Haley. Many wondered if this seemingly delicate thoroughbred had the strength, speed and stamina to compete with the big boys in the rough and tumble track, but so far she has proven herself quite adept. She started a little on the outside but in the turn pulled a nose ahead a couple times only to fall back into the pack. She has the look of a sprinter and as we head to the backstretch keep an eye on her to make a move out of the pack.
DeSantis was the talk of the pre-race with odds rising as high as even money with Trump. However, just as post time approached his odds dropped faster than Bud Light’s market share and he’s been plummeting ever since. Seems like bettors didn’t like what they saw when they watched this pony hit the track. He had a good jump from the gate but has faded ever since. Coming out of the turn he’s coming up lame and questions are whether this horse will even finish the race. Team vets may have to euthanize this horse on the track before it’s over.
Which brings us to Pence. The grandstand stayed away from this aging stallion and booed him when he hit the track. Pence has the War Admiral physique and stature but not the spark and absolutely zero of the love. Of all the horses in the field today, Pence physically looks the most like the one you would anticipate winning. Yet every stride feels half hearted, every gallop like he’s going through the motions and quite frankly the jockey looks like he just doesn’t care to be there. He’ll be competitive throughout the race, but until he shows some signs of life he’ll remain in the pack to the end. Not sure how much the people in the stands will ever get behind this one.
Leading up the rear of the pack but not far off is Tim Scott. So far, Scott has been nothing but a pacehorse for the others and has not really shown any signs of breaking stride or making a run. I’m not saying he can’t, he just hasn’t shown it yet. Chalk him right now as the “Happy to just be in the field” horse.
The rest of the field is a ways back with no real chance of making a run.
The old war horse Asa Hutchison has showed his age and is about to put to pasture.
Doug Borghum had the money to compete in smaller shorter races but hasn’t shown any sign he can “level up” to the bigger, longer races and with better competition.
Will Hurd is more a show pony playing to the crowd but isn’t really competing.
Larry Elder hasn’t even gotten out of the gate.
Perry Johnson and Ryan Binkley were on the card but nobody has really seen them. They have not officially scratched but they appear nowhere on the track.
And there you have it.
Our next call will be at the half way point just before the Iowa Caucuses.
PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject
A number of horses in the race have already broken a leg, but don’t even know it. They will be taken to the barn and shot by the lead horse. If the lead horse does not win, there is a bomb which will explode at the finish line and kill all the other horses, so it’s either the lead horse or no other horse.