Have the Republicans Reached the Tipping Point?
Was the Rejection of Jim Jordan Specific to Him, or a Sign of a New Direction?
On Friday, after having lost two previous votes for Speaker of the House pretty solidly, Jim Jordan gave a Press Conference where it was largely speculated he was throwing in the towel. Instead, he gave this bizarre rambling speech where he he vowed to march on. Later that morning, the House held ANOTHER vote for Speaker which resulted in him losing by even MORE votes than he had previously. Later Friday, in a closed door party conference, he failed to garner even a majority of the Republican votes to go on. His chance at Speaker of the House is now in ashes.
Jim Jordan is the epitome of the obnoxious, unruly MAGA caucus. He steamrolls over any opposition and has some of the sharpest elbows in Washington. After McCarthy lost the Speakership and then Steve Scalise got kneecapped by Jordan behind close doors, it seemed that the job was his to lose. MAGA Republicans were behind him from the start.
But he failed by even larger margins than McCarthy did. Republicans elected in swing and more moderate districts wouldn’t get on board. In the internal caucus vote on Friday, the word is every Republican that Jordan had ever rubbed the wrong way with his singular ambition were all too gleeful to stick it to him in the end.
So with the re-assertion of sensibiliity into the Republican Caucus again, is this a sign of things to come or is it specific only to the undeniably hateable Jordan. To really understand, you need to look back at what empowered MAGA within the party to begin with.
Back to 2016
In 2016, Trump was ascendant. appealing to the worst contingents and tendencies within the Republican Party. At the time, it wasn’t like Trump overwhelmed the party; he consistently won about 25-35% of the party, but that left a large number of smart, reasonable Republicans who did not get on board. Of the contenders. only Jon Kasich vocally opposed Trump; the others would use tact and disagree, but did not oppose Trump because they all thought they would need to appeal to Trump’s voters to eventually win. That strategy never works. Dubbed “the pilot fish” strategy after the small fish that swim with sharks enjoying the chum, but all it does is ensure the shark eats them last. One by one, Trump beat the rest of the crew, with his numbers slowly rising as it became more and more apparent the only opposition to him was going to be Kasich, and he left the field when he ran out of money.
After Trump won, completely negating everything that the party had put together in the “autopsy” just four years before, the energy was within the hardcore far right contingent within the party. The worst of the worst. When Trump called neo-Nazis at Charlottesville, “fine people,” those were the people fueling his campaign and efforts. In special elections in 2017 and in the primaries in 2018, moderate, sensible Republicans lost badly, and the hardcore MAGA activists, won soundly. But here’s the catch, taking a step back and seeing the bigger picture, Democrats won in 2018 in a wave year. Sure, Republicans could go further right, but they would alienate the swing voters who decide elections.
This dynamic played out again in 2020 and in 2022 when it should have been a GOP wave year, they barely eked a House Majority and lost numbers in the Senate.
Looking to 2024
That legislative loser and loudmouth Matt Gaetz would make a mockery of the election of McCarthy as Speaker, forcing him to go 15 votes before getting the job, pulling the rug out from McCarthy halfway through the year after McCarthy stopped a government shutdown was totally predictable. What all dipshit elected officials though have in common is that they never think that far ahead and never consider the consequences. After ditching McCarthy, no heir apparent remained.
Scalise initially won the internal GOP vote, but then again behind closed doors he failed to get the requisite majority of the House. Seeing failure, he backed out clearing the way for Jordan.
As Washington Post reporter Philip Bump noted, the size of the contingent opposing Jordan got bigger, and its WHERE they represent that matters:
Those largely from Biden districts, or close swings, and who legislate less conservatively as a result. all opposed Jim Jordan. The moderates in the party re-asserted themselves.
To be sure, for now. its just a single victory for the moderates. But once Congress gets back going again, there are going to be a rash of votes that work in their favor; spending bills to avert a government shutdown, funding bills for Ukraine and Israel, and several others such as supporting rural broadband. If they win here, and win another. and another. will it result in a change within the party?
How will we tell? As Jonathan V. Last noted, the party is currently uniting behind Trump. Republican voters flirted with Ron DeSantis, but as Desantis’s numbers are dropping, none of the other also-rans are rising, only Trump is.
As we reach the end of October and the campaigns go full speed ahead towards the Iowa Caucuses in January, what if the other canidates coalesced around Nikki Haley and demonstrated some momentum. What if she got the kind of media attention showing her as a viable alternative to Trump. With Trump spending all his time in courts and not on the campaign trail, and Haley possibly throwing verbal roundhouses on the former President, would a tipping point occur? Kind of the “antithesis of 2016?”
We’ll have to wait and see.
PurpleAmerica Recommended Stories
“The Tipping Point” was a best seller for Macolm Gladwell, and one of his most successful books. It has become one of those books that people love to point to to show that slow starts and building momentum can lead to big things down the road.
I’m also going to recommend Gladwell’s podcast “Revisionist History,” which takes a commonly held and accepted belief and approaches the issue from a different perspective.
PurpleAmerica’s Obscure Fact of the Day
I’m offering this one again, because it is completely mindblowing to me:
Hakeem Jeffries has now received more votes for Speaker of the House than any person in American History, never having won the office and he did this all within his first year as party leader in the House.
PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject
“A change can do you good”— Sheryl Crow
What has always been apparent is MAGA has no interest in helping the Republican party. In fact, in many instances, their stance is in direct opposition to it. Most MAGA would consider burning down the establishment R's to be a positive.
I don't see a path where the party can survive without major changes.
Typo: kidn should be kind