Let's Address the Elephant in the Room
Trump Wins if the GOP is Fragmented Like Last Time; Like Last Time, Too Many Remain in the Race
Why aren't we directly confronting the critical issue within the Republican Party? This party seems to be ignoring the elephant in the room, namely, Donald Trump.
Throughout my lifetime, in every election, even those marked by intense primary battles, the defeated candidates eventually concede and unite behind the frontrunner for the general election. Have we considered how this dynamic may shift with Donald Trump? Does anyone anticipate Trump to concede if he loses? The more likely scenario is that like a spoiled brat he tears the Republican Party down if he doesn’t get his way.
Isn't it concerning there is no path to victory for anyone other than Trump in the primary election and ultimately the general? Whether it's Ron Desantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, or Chris Christie, they are all doomed. Sure, in an ordinary electoral scenario, they might have a chance, but this is far from ordinary.
We've witnessed nearly a decade of Trumpism. Regardless of one's personal feelings towards him, it's essential to objectively assess his political behavior. A few aspects have always been clear:
1. Donald Trump will not accept defeat in the primary.
2. Donald Trump will put his personal interests over those of the Republican party.
3. Donald Trump will not support a candidate that beats him.
Why aren't we recognizing more broadly that Donald Trump's primary loyalties may not be with the Republican party but seem to be driven by his personal interests? This trait is mirrored by many of his most ardent supporters, who seem more loyal to Trump as an individual than to the party constituency itself. He’s manipulated the RNC into a functional subsidiary of Trump, Inc.
Furthermore, it's imperative to acknowledge that the loyalty of many 'MAGA' voters is primarily to Trump, not the Republican party. Is it realistic to think a Republican candidate could win a presidential election without the backing of these Trump supporters? Hillary Clinton had her “PUMAS” (“Party Unity My Ass”) but even they eventually fell in line against Obama. Does anyone believe MAGAWorld will fall in line behind Ron DeSantis? Chris Christie? Nikki Haley? Doubtful.
It's essential for Republicans to recognize the complexity of the situation they are in. They're grappling with a problem they played a role in creating, and it has left the party in a precarious position. It appears the only options are winning with Trump or facing defeat. He has the ability to hold the entire party hostage, and you know he is willing to do it. Given the unpopularity of Trumpism and MAGA, and the electoral ceiling that represents, a Biden landslide in 2024 is not out of the realm of possibility.
It may be a bitter pill to swallow, but the most constructive step is immediately to rally behind a non-Trump candidate. If such a candidate were to beat Trump in the primaries, it could be a pivotal moment, even if it risks diminishing the party's chances in the immediate election. This course of action could mark the beginning of the end of the Trump era, setting the stage for a possible reset by 2028.
The biggest problem then becomes “who?” With an ever growing field of the ambitious (Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis), the has beens (Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence) and the “never was” (Vivek Ramaswamy, Doug Borgum, et.al.), who does the non-Trump vote rally around? In 2016, too many candidates split the vote letting Trump sneak through; by the end only John Kasich was standing and too weak to compete. They’ll need more to get out of the race sooner rather than later if they have any chance of supplanting Trump at the top of the ticket.
PurpleAmerica’s Recommended Stories
This topic is something we at PurpleAmerica are going to keep coming back to. As a National Party, the Republican Party is a shambles; nothing unites them philosophically or intellectually at all anymore. It’s a Cult of Personality with issue branding, and the issues they supposedly believe in are inconsistently addressed, supplanted by a “so long as we win and Dems lose” mentality. How it gets out of this political pandemonium and returns to normalcy again may be the defining political item for the next 20 years.
Its topics we’ve discussed here:
And here:
And here:
We at PurpleAmerica are very proud of our work and highly recommend you check out these past articles that we posted.
PurpleAmerica’s Obscure Fact of the Day
Let’s talk about Elephants a second. Elephants are the world’s largest land animal and there are three types (African Savannah, African Bush/Jungle and Indian), that you can differentiate by their ears. Some interesting facts about elephants:
Their trunks have over 150,000 muscles in them which makes them highly manipulable and extremely sensitive. Trumks are also used by elephants to express affection.
An elephant’s skin is an inch thick in most places, making it a very tough animal.
They eat up to 150 kg of food a day!
One of the many ways they communicate is through the seismic vibrations they feel when they and other elephants walk about.
An elephant’s temporal lobe, the one most closely associated with memory, is larger than that of any other land animal. Thus, it is actually true, an elephant never forgets.
PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject
Baby elephants can walk only 20 minutes after birth. Who doesn’t like seeing a baby elephant?
I can imagine (with lots of pharmaceuticals) one scenario that works. Trump gets beat, and then endorses one of the others pulling them over the line.
Just kidding, I could barely type that without guffawing out loud.
The real problem will be that ~30% of the base that is Trump or die that will never coalesce around any of the others.
In other words, I will need lots of popcorn to watch this play out, but regardless, America loses.