This is part two of a two part breakdown of the nominees and likely winners. See the previous post for the nominations not contained in this posting.
Best production design
Analysis: It’s hard to gauge Production Design for a film like Avatar that exists almost entirely within a computer. The film it seems to me to have the best design was Babylon, but its a very flawed movie. My gut tells me Elvis wins this because it was a better movie, more people have seen it, its probably the 2nd best production design and it’s just a more likeable film.
Best visual effects
Analysis; If there is such a thing as an Academy “sure thing” its that Avatar is going to win this hands down. It really is no contest.
Best film editing
Analysis: What made “Everything Everywhere All at Once” the amazing film it is rests entirely on the editing. If that movie wasn’t edited so well, it could easily have been a disaster in every way. The others are fine, if more conventionally so, but EEAAO was on a whole other level when it came to Editing.
Best cinematography
Analysis: What makes Tar stand out so much to a lot of cinema enthusiasts is in how the story is told through visual cues, camera angles and movements and the timing. It was on the top of a lot of lists last year largely for its direction, acting and cinematography. Hard to see it losing here.
Best adapted screenplay
Analysis: Again, haven’t seen a couple of these. Honestly though, if I had to choose one I would choose Top Gun: Maverick. There’s a lot of subtext in the script and although the formula is the same as the original, how they deviate from that formula is what makes it such a fun film.
Best original screenplay
Analysis: Everything Everywhere All at Once is simply one of the most creative, abstract genius films written out. I could just see them in pitch meetings throwing things at the wall and making them stick. They made an “everything bagel,” rocks with googly eyes, people with hot dog fingers and a racoon inspired Ratatouille noteworthy items. That’s writing for you.
Best supporting actor
Analysis: Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and The Goonies actor Ke Huy Quan’s comeback has been inspiring. The acceptance speech is going to gush over Steven Speilberg too. Who doesn’t want to see that?
Best supporting actress
Analysis: Had Janelle Monae been nominated, she’d win in a heartbeat. I’ve seen Angela Bassett in a lot of better films in a lot of better roles but she’s more than due. Other than that, Kerry Condon is well liked, but she really doesn’t play that much of a role in the film. The two EEAAO cancel each other out too.
Best actress
Analysis: Its a two way race between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. Of the two, Yeoh was a lot more likeable, and this was the part she was made for. Blanchett’s won before. Michelle Yeoh wins this year.
Best actor
Analysis: Austin Butler was amazing in Elvis and certainly earned it, but Brendan Fraser in the Whale is really something. He’s deserved the praise and accollades he’s getting and Hollywood loves a comeback like this. Butler’s future is bright and he’ll be back.
Best director
Analysis: Again, what makes Tar such a great film and favored by cinema enthusiasts is the cinematography, acting and direction. Its an expertly directed film and should win.
Best Picture
Analysis: OK, time for the big one! It really is a two movie race, between Tar and Everything Everywhere All at Once. Of the two, EEAAO is more likeable, a helluva lot more fun, more creative and my favorite film of the last 3 or more years. Tar is well made, crafted, dry, not quite as enjoyable and the kind of film that will likely be forgotten in a few years (seriously, name the last 3 Best Picture winners). For that reason, Everything Everywhere All at Once is going to win— its just a juggernaut that is so memorable that it’ll be hard for it to lose at this point.
Outstanding Tweet
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So that’s it! Tell me what you think in the comments.