The Democrat Who Can Hand Michigan to Trump

Democratic Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib Isn't On Board with Biden

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. All politics is local. It’s a maxim in politics. Former Democratic Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill is credited with it, but the saying goes back further than him. I’ll never argue against someone representing their district at the expense of outsiders, but it doesn’t mean we have to like it either. Matt Gaetz is a flat out fool for everyone to see, and he’s single handedly bent the GOP majority in the House to a standstill over his successful coup againt Kevin McCarthy earlier this year, yet his constituents love his antics.

Which brings us to Democratic Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib. No single member of Congress has the ability to completely sway the election one way or another more than Tlaib. To understand why, you need to understand her district, her state, it’s role in the Electoral Vote and the consequences of what her actions may bring.

Michigan’s 12th and 13th Districts

Michigan has been a strong Democratic stronghold for almost a century. It largely goes back to the rise of the automobile and the big car factories in and and around the Detroit area, along with the unions that fueled Democratic voting. It may surprise some, but Detroit going back to the 19th Century has also always had a strong Arab, Palestinian, Middle Eastern community. In the 1920s and 30s, a large contingent of minorities came to work at the plants and settled in and around Dearborn, MI.

As a practical matter, because of the already existing community, when immigrants from Middle Eastern and Muslim countries came to the United States, many settled in the Detroit area. It was easy for them to integrate into the already existing Muslim local culture and structure. It made sense. However, starting in the 1970’s and ‘80s, some large demographic shifts occured. First, the closing of many of the auto factories resulted in a net decrease of population in Michigan, particularly Detroit. One community that did NOT leave, were the Middle Eastern and Muslim communities, who actually thrived and grew.

The second major factor is that in the last 40-50 years there have been a lot of immigration to the United States from Middle Eastern and Muslim nations, largely as a result of continuing war and violence, much of which was our own doing:

• The collapse of Somalia into a warlord state

• Ongoing famine and war in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Darfur and other African nations and areas.

• Continuing Palestinian struggles

• The “War on Terror” and U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

• The fallout of the Syrian Civil War resulting in thousands of refugees.

When the displaced came to America and settled, many of them settled in Michigan.

In 2018, with the retirement of longtime Democratic Congressman John Conyers in the 13th District (about as Democratic a district as you will find), a special election was held to fill the seat. By now, that Middle Eastern community that had for a long time been a minority in this majority minority district were now a clear majority of the residents there. They asserted their vote and elected Rashida Tlaib, a Palestinian-American, to Congress. With the redistricting that occurs every decade, she was then redrawn into the 12th district. The 12th, previously represented by John and then Debbie Dingel, is also a very Democratic stronghold.

But to many, Tlaib’s schtick was wearing thin. Trump was out and Biden was now President. Things were moving in the right direction, but not fast enough, economically, socially or culturarlly for Tlaib and members of the very left wing “Squad.” She’s been a vocal member of the BDS (Boycott-Divest-Sanction) Israel Movement. She’d repeated and retweeted anti-Semitic remarks about Israel, leading to her censure in the House. She’s consistently and controversially gone up against Democratic leadership again and again as they try and keep her under control. Her last primary election in 2022, the first in her new district though?

Seems like the people back in her district liked what she was doing. The pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel, uber-liberal socialist message resonated back in the Michigan 12th. After she was censured in the House, she received $3.7 million in campaign donations, outraising all other Congressional candidates, AND THE STATEWIDE DEM SENATE CANDIDATES TOO. She has become the face of the anti-Israel left, mostly younger, educated, many POC and part of a growing very liberal academic left. Fiercely critical of Biden on Gaza, she represents the growing trend in liberal Democratic circles of drifting away from Israel and siding with the Palestinians.

How do her polls look in Michigan overall though? Not good. A Newsweek poll in December found her with just a 24% approval. It seems her appeal is strong to the already initiated (hardcore Dem base voters) and those in her district, but less so with older and more moderate ones. It’s down right anemic with Republicans, who hold her up as the poster child of everything wrong with the Democratic Party. So how could someone like Tlaib so strongly influence the election between Trump and Biden?

Michigan, The Electoral Vote and The Path to Victory.

This is the 2020 Presidential Election Map. Note Michigan has 15 Electoral Votes.

This was the result in the 2020 election in Michigan.

Biden beat Trump by 3%—only 150k votes. Michigan is a part of the Democratic “blue wall” and Trump had actually won it in 2016. Its economically pretty Democratic, but socially, it was home to the famed “Reagan Democrats” who switched their party allegiances to the GOP. Trump tapped into that effectively in 2016, winning the state.

In the recent Michigan Primary, Tlaib told all of her supporters to vote “Uncommited” as a mark against Biden and his policies in Gaza. For the most part, Biden has been cautious, thoughtful and a reliable President in dealing with Israel and the Palestinians, but to Tlaib and many of the Squadish Left, he’s too close to Israel and helping Netanyahu slaughter Gazan civilians, a completely unfair and untrue characterization. The Dem Primary in Michigan was largely uncontested. The results of how many voted against Biden in the primary?

Over 100k Democratic base voters withheld their votes from Biden and voted Uncommited in the primary. 2/3 of Biden’s margin over victory deserted him…in an uncontested primary.

If Tlaib convinces enough liberal Democrats not to vote for Biden in November, or more likely alienates enough people not to vote for Biden (and worse, vote for Trump), Biden can very easily lose Michigan. Badly. Note, she doesn’t even have to convince a lot of Democratic supporters either; a mere 3% of the total vote in Michigan is all it would take. Biden’s margin narrows considerably without Michigan. Many of the same type of voters are found in Pennsylvania. If Biden loses both MI and PA, he has no path to election. Period.

To lean into this with the margins for victory so razor thin is not the mark of a leader. A true leader would be trying to speak common sense to her constituents, taking their side but being up front and honest about the potential fallout. A Trump Presidency would be catastrophic to their causes. That’s why what Tlaib is doing isn’t just stupid; it’s outright dangerous and untimely. The consequences and stakes are so high right now, that to even flirt with this kind of outcome is like trying to play chicken with a Bullet Train; you think you're safe this far out but the speed of the oncoming traffic is going much faster and much more forcefully than you anticipate. Trump and Republicans are going to try and tie Tlaib and Biden together as much as possible, and although Biden has daylight between him and her, to the rest of the voting public they are on the same side as Democrats. If that sticks, Dems may be in for a long four years.

As for Tlaib, she's under the mistaken impression playing to her base is leadership and Biden is her enemy. If she is responsible for the margin of a Trump victory, she'll become a pariah and her career as a liberal firebrand in Democratic Party politics will largely be over.

PurpleAmerica’s Obscure Facts of the Day

The first Muslim member of Congress was only elected in 2006, only 18 years ago. Keith Ellison from Minnesota won a closely contested primary for a very Democratic district, and at a time when the wounds of 9/11 were still being felt and the Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were top of the newscast headlines, Ellison won and was sworn into office using Thomas Jefferson’s copy of the Quran, loaned to him on the occasion by the Library of Congress.

Ellison is now Attorney General in the state of Minnesota. His district is now represented by another Muslim, Ilhan Omar. She is a close confidante to Rashida Tlaib and also a member of “The Squad” with her.

PurpleAmerica’s Final Word

“All politics is local”

“You can’t assume anything in Politics.”

- Former House Speaker Tip O’Neill

Footnotes and Fun Stuff