The Mutiny to Nowhere
Perghozin's Crossing of the Rubicon and Subsequent Second Guessing
Well, we know where we're goin'
But we don't know where we've been
And we know what we're knowin'
But we can't say what we've seen
And we're not little children
And we know what we want
And the future is certain
Give us time to work it out
Yevgeny Prigozhin crossed the Rubicon on Friday evening.
The phrase harkens back to 49 B.C.E. when Julius Caesar crossed what was then the Northern boundry of the Roman State. Caesar had been appointed to a governorship over a region that ranged from southern Gaul to Illyricum. As his term of governorship ended, the Senate ordered him to disband his army and return to Rome. As it was illegal to bring armies into Rome (the northern border of which was marked by the river Rubicon) his crossing the river under arms amounted to insurrection, treason, and a declaration of war on the state. Upon crossing, knowing that it was a point of no return for him, he said “The Die is Cast” leaving his future to fate. The event precipitated the Roman Civil War and Julius Caesar went down in history as the father of one of the largest empires ever.
We're on a road to nowhere Come on inside Takin' that ride to nowhere We'll take that ride I'm feelin' okay this mornin' And you know We're on a road to paradise Here we go, here we go
Prigozhin is clearly no Caesar. He’s a warlord thug presiding over his own private army, the Wagner Group. His mercenary army had committed notable atrocities in Ukraine, where Russian President Vladimir Putin had paid for and instructed him to work. Arrogant to a fault, he flaunted his successes over the Russian military dysfunction and had particular head-butting instances with Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu. Last week, Prighozin was told by Moscow he was to surrender the Wagner Group to be incorporated into Shoigu’s Russian Military. He did not take this direction well.
We're on a ride to nowhere
Come on inside
Takin' that ride to nowhere
We'll take that ride
Maybe you wonder where you are
I don't care
Here is where time is on our side
Take you there, take you there
We're on a road to nowhere
We're on a road to nowhere
We're on a road to nowhere
In defiance, he pulled Wagner mercenaries off the frontlines in Ukraine and out of the country altogether, and then in his Rubicon Moment, announced he was going to march them onto Moscow. When his army entered Rostov-on-Don outside of Ukraine, they were greeted with a hero’s welcome. On the road to Moscow, the convoy shot down a Russian helicopter and a Russian loading station. This was troubling for Moscow because there was nothing preventing Pirgozhin from entering Moscow; the entire Russian military is located in Ukraine behind him. Had he wanted to, Pirghozin could have taken his convoy right into Red Square and occupied the city. He could have sparked a populist uprising that those opposed to the war in Ukraine would rally to. Putin, immediately fled Moscow for St. Petersburg.
There's a city in my mind Come along and take that ride And it's all right, baby it's all right And it's very far away But it's growing day by day And it's all right, baby it's all right Would you like to come along? And you could help me sing this song And it's all right, baby it's all right They can tell you what to do But they'll make a fool of you And it's all right, baby it's all right
However, after crossing the Rubicon, Prigozhin had a change of heart. Less than 150 miles from Moscow, a deal was announced. Belarus President Lukachenko (and Putin stoolie) brokered a deal that allowed Prighozin and Wagner leadership refuge in Belarus, all of the soldiers who surrendered would have amnesty and return to the front lines and there would be a change in leadership in the Defense Ministry. Prigozhin took the deal, which is increasingly odd.
It’s odd because Putin has a history of killing those who embarrass or who are disloyal to him. Sure, Prigozhin may be in another country but that never stopped Putin before. His most brazen acts were what amounted to clear murders on foreign soil. Prigozhin’s days are numbered. If this were the deal, one wonders why he took it.
There's a city in my mind
Come along and take that ride
And it's all right, baby it's all right
And it's very far away
But it's growing day by day
And it's all right, baby it's all right
Would you like to come along?
You could help me sing this song
And it's all right, baby it's all right
They can tell you what to do
But they'll make a fool of you
And it's all right, baby it's all right
Nonetheless, the deal was made and accepted and the mutiny stopped in its tracks. No popular uprising has occurred (yet), though it may still surface. Putin is wounded politically, and following the typical dictator playbook we can expect some purges coming. Russia is increasingly unstable politically, with public sentiment no longer behind its leadership, an unpoular war continuing, and further disconnect between those in Moscow and those everywhere else.
Which makes one think— what would have happened all those years ago had Julius Caesar not marched on Rome. Had he just turned over his army and returned to Rome as a former Governor? It’s an interesting hypothetical. The world, would definitely be a different place.
We're on a road to nowhere --David Byrne and The Talking Heads "Road to Nowhere"
PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject
