The Unique 2026 Oppurtunity to Rebuild the Dem Party

The Senate Map is Going to Require Better Messaging that Can Pay Dividends

Whoever becomes the Chair of the Democratic Party has the opportunity to do something not done since 1990. You see, Senators get elected every six years, which means every other Senate term occurs the same year as a White House run. Senators run essentially for themselves every 12 years. The last two times these Senate seats were up in a midterm were 2014 (when Obama was President) and 2002 (when post 9/11 Democrats were just going to lose). So not since 1990 have these Senate seats not had a Democrat at the top of the ticket (when Republicans have good midterms), or had a midterm chance of actually winning outright.

When you look at it that way, it’s no wonder the states up for election this time around look as red as they do. These are all bastions of typically solid Dem states (Oregon, Massachusetts, Illinois, Minnesota, etc.) and a whole swath of red states that Dems have all but given up on over the past 20-30 years. They’re going to have to expend capital to shore up John Osoff in Georgia and Gary Peters in Michigan. In fact, at first glance at the map, there are really only two competitive pickups for Dems, Maine (Susan Collins) and North Carolina (Thom Tillis). That’s not even enough to get them in the majority.

Also of note, is that this is the year that both New York and California don’t have any candidate running. Candidates that typically advocate for far more liberal positions, along with their loud supporters, won’t be as in the public eye as much as those more moderating voices in the party.

Without Trump driving turnout through the roof, many of the places that went red in 2024 are going to be less so in 2026. In addition, midterms usually slide to the party out of the White House, and that goes double so when one party has complete control of Congress. Make no mistake, barring some really extraordinary event or circumstances, the 2026 midterm elections will very much shift to the Dems. They have a great opportunity here.

But where? Their messaging has sucked and has been so off putting to middle of the country “flyover” states that they are going to have to completely revanch what they say and how they say it. This is actually a good thing. They’ll have to get away from the overly erudite, sophisticated babble that appeals to people on the coasts, and get into the retail politicking and quality campaigning that defines mid-America. The best targets?

• Joni Ernst. Iowa is closer than people think. There was a splash of optimism late in the campaign in the DMR poll. Believe it or not, even though it seemed like a mirage, it’s a signal that people are at least open to alternatives in Iowa.

• Roger Marshall. Yes, Kansas can be competitive. You just have to campaign everywhere. A good, moderate local candidate can do really well here. Marshall barely got 53% of the vote last time. Someone who can cut into those rural margins that Trump racks up can win.

• Dan Sullivan. Alaska is always a little kooky. Yeah, they tend to lean a little R, but there is also a really solid iconoclastic, indepdendent streak there, which does not toe the GOP establishment line. The right tone and issues can be appealing here.

• Kentucky. I know, I know. It’s Mitch McConnell’s seat. He’s resigning his post as Senate Majority Leader and will likely not run again for Senate. Kentucky currently has a Democratic Governor who is very popular in Andy Beshear. Don’t tell me a Democrat can’t win a statewide open seat in Kentucky if McConnell doesn’t run again. A mix of the right campaign and issues again. It’s possible.

• South Carolina. This one is an outside chance, because it started out close last time. But Lindsay Graham’s utter capitulation to Trump and MAGA are not popular. And as MAGA governance rears it’s incompetent head, he may be more and more vulnerable. Everything Trump Touches Dies, and that would be extremely pleasing to the powers that be if Graham finds himself in a competitive race.

• Montana. The good thing about Tester losing this time around? 2026 will be a better environment to run in against a mediocre Steve Daines. If not Tester, Steve Bullock is still out there.

Add to those the forementioned Susan Collins in Maine (who is going to lose badly if she runs) and Thom Tillis (who barely eked through last time) and that’s eight potential targets that are winnable. What would it require of Democrats?

1. A more rural, Middle American tone. Hot Dogs, Apple Pie, Country or Classic Rock music, muscle cars. High School football and friendly locals. Quit with the broad social justice themes and those that appeal to an educated elite or college students; cater to the local, regional issues that define working class politics.

2. Patriotism. Let’s not forget, the 250th birthday of our country is 2026. People are going to be up for pro-American, optimistic rhetoric. This is especially so in the mid American farmland country states, and Dems are going to have to ditch the “America is a racist/sexist/genocidal hellhole” rhetoric for a more pleasing message. America is the greatest country on the planet, praise it.

3. Strong local candidates. Dear DCCC and DSCC— don’t astroturf Ivy League up and comer McKinsey promoted candidates in these places. Support local candidates who know people and know the area. That is your best chance at building grassroots organizations that will pay dividends in 2026 and eventually 2028.

4. Fund candidates in the middle of the country. For starters, money goes longer there. For the price of an ad in Massachusetts, you can pay 10 in Davenport or Des Moines. Second, when you pull funding to shore up New York candidates that should not be in trouble, that’s on them for being bad candidates. Fund the people who are doing a good job and can boost the Dem brand in places you need it, regardless of whether it was formerly a red or a blue district. You need to compete EVERYWHERE.

Competing in all of these places isn’t just for races this cycle, it’s doing the groundwork of building up support for 2028, for an open Presidential year. Those collateral House races are also going to see additional benefits. By going for the areas that Dems haven’t competed in in forever, the Democratic Party would be saying “We hear you, we weren’t paying attention, we’re sorry. We’re listening now.” That goes a long way to making the party relevant again in the Electoral College.

You do that, and 2026 will be great, perhaps 2028 too.

PurpleAmerica’s Last Word

“The Battle is won or lost before it is fought.”— Sun Tzu, The Art of War