A Reminder: It's Only Been 50 Days

This Week, We Compare Trump's Two Term Starts

A number of the reasons I have been trying to remain calm as Trump wreaks havoc on our nation are that:

1. I know that a lot of it is hyperbole; the media loves to take things, particularly questionable or ambiguous things, and run with them. Sensationalizing questions (not answers) drives clicks and boy are things clicking now. I’m not downplaying what’s happening, but few ACTUALLY know the details of what is going on from the inside, and there are just more questions than answers. Media speculation thrives in that environment.

2. Trump’s M.O. is always to do something stupid and then backtrack when it proves unpopular. He’ll never admit mistake, but he’ll go silent and take a step backward with his tail between his legs. He’s already starting to. Just look at how he backed down from Ontario in his reckless trade war with Canada.

3. There isn’t much we can do to stop it right now; Republicans control both Houses of Congress and the White House. The only real check is in the Judical Branch, and that takes time as suits work their way through the system. No sense getting angry for things outside of control, better to be patient and hope for the best, and work in ways that can boost Democratic electoral chances 2 years from now.

4. I believe our government and society are more resilient than a lot of you out there.

I’ve taken my share of unfounded criticism for it too. Elections have consequences; this is what happens when you care so much about issue purity that you are no longer electorally pragmatic—you lose elections and are stuck in this situation. So many out there who are the most in blue lockstep are screaming more quasi-extraConstitutional steps have to be done to stop Trump, and these are the very same people who most flipped out when I said what Trump and Musk were doing was not a Coup, completely unaware of the irony.¹ However, I don’t mind people showing up at Town Halls spewing against their representatives; in fact, I wholly endorse it, that’s what democracy IS. In fact, that has been enormously effective as Republican legislators are beginning to second guess themselves and start to put distance between themselves and the ever more unpopular administration.

However, the biggest reason I’ve tried to remain calm is that I know that there is absolutely no way I (and most people for that matter) can keep this level of intensity up for years without going insane. It’s only been 50 days! We have another 1400+ days to go barring impeachment, death or the 25th Amendment kicking in.² I’ve watched relatives go right from election year dramatics into “My God its the End of the World” hysterics overnight.³ People are not wired to be on edge like this for prolonged periods of time. We need to exhale. Screaming at the top of your lungs to alert the world on every minor issue only results in everything being an issue; and if everything is, nothing is. That’s how Trump gets these things normalized. That and it just pisses people off.

So today instead of a typical weekly recap, I am going to compare the early days from the last time Trump was in office to where he is this time. Hopefully, it will calm some of you down not to worry so damn much and allow you all to catch your breath. The TL;DR is that Trump is basically right where he was at the start of his term now as he was eight years ago in terms of poularity, and the fundamentals of where we are as a country are no longer in his favor; he can’t just coast like he did before, he actually has to lead. Where he’s leading us, also isn’t very popular. Hopefully, we won’t have a once in a lifetime pandemic to endure again, but if things play out like most politics usually does, Trump is going to have a terrible four years in office. And before I go further, just a reminder—Trump won the popular vote and the Electoral College so most people actually voted for this.⁴

Polling

I’m not one to get too bogged down in polls. They are snapshots meant to be glimpses as to where things stand; too many people treat them as notes on a horse race that don’t even take into account the regular state of affairs or ebbs and flows of the office.⁵ But you can get the gist of where we are as a country by looking at where a President’s Approval Rating stands at the start of their terms. Here’s a comparison:

Two things stick out about this chart. First, we are more divided now than at any point of the last 75 years. The second is that Trump this year is only more popular than one other President; which happens to be Trump in 2016.

Generally, he’s not getting the typical honeymoon period or latitude afforded new Presidents. That could be that he’s already a known commodity, already been President and people kind of knew what they were getting. Now they’re getting buyers’ remorse in the same way a hangover the next day makes you swear off alcohol forever. You can see that evident in his record HIGH disapproval number. I’d also venture that the swing voters who gave him the electoral win are also going to give him a short leash and turn on him early when things quickly go south. They may not have liked Biden or Harris, but they were no Trump fanboys either. In fact, you are already starting to see this; a new CNN poll that came out Wednesday showed he was 9 points underwater, 45-54%, showing people lining up against him pretty quickly this time, and less than 1% of people without an opinion—that’s practically no wiggle room at all.

Long story short, his approval will erode to just his base support faster than most people realize.

Economically

In Trump’s first term he was coasting on the economy that Barack Obama turned around and built; slow steady growth, historically low inflation, low unemployment. Given the turnaround Obama pulled off from when he first started, there wasn’t much turbulence as the post-Great Recession economy became the envy of the world. Trump inherited smooth sailing, and dispite his poking at it enacting tarriffs, it continued largely unabated. His ruinous tax cuts wouldn’t make it through Congress until late in the year but the economy chugged along until the COVID iceberg hit 3 years later.

This time around, he inherited a tenuous economy; it had maintained great numbers at a macroeconomic level for awhile, but consumer confidence had always been iffy, and Post-COVID recovery had been uneven, working well in large cities but not filtering to small towns. Post-COVID inflation was still somewhat there, and AI/automation had started causing job losses. With that background, Trump came in and brought a wrecking ball, causing economic uncertainty, employment anxiety and inflation to spike. The results? He has the worst economic record for the first 50 days in office of any President since Obama in the wake of the Housing Collapse, W during the Dot-Com Crash (look at that NASDAQ drop!) and before that Richard Nixon. As I said earlier this week, this is clearly the start of the Trump Recession, something Trump didn’t even dispute earlier this week.

World (In)Security

Obama had endured the Global Economic Collapse and the Arab Spring came and went. There were some ongoing thorns (Syria Civil War, ISIS, Ukraine) but for the most part the world was collaborating and things were OK. Trump inherited relative peace and there wasn’t much he could initially do to upend that, particularly in 50 days.

The bulk of the angst internationally that he drew was for his Immigration Ban and policy. Thing is, at least initially, it was domestically popular. It wasn’t until details came out as to how they employed that policy that public opinion turned (which was later in the summer and fall of 2017 into 2018). Trump’s other actions in his first 50 days were actually flip-flops. During the campaign he had claimed NATO was obsolete, but after meeting Jens Stoltenberg and learning their contributions, he reluctantly supported NATO⁶. Instead, he told member countries they had to contribute the 2% defense budget previously agreed to, which they did.

The other thing Trump took relish in doing was pulling the U.S. out of international trade treaties and organizations. The Trans-Pacfic Partnership (TPP) was scrapped, labeled China a “currency manipulator” and NAFTA was to be reconsidered. The TPP would go on without the US and we would negotiate (not as) comparable terms with individual member countries. NAFTA would eventually be renegotiated and updated as the USMCA.

So for most things Trump did in his first 50 days in 2017, he talked hard but did very little of consequence. Most consequential things happened later.

However now, Trump is inheriting a much more dangerous world. Ukraine is in a militarily stagnant quagmire with invading Russia, and most of Europe is on edge about what Russia does next. Gaza is literally a wreck. China is drooling over Taiwan and watching what Trump does closely. And amidst all this in the world, Trump 1) obliterates a US agency in charge of delivering aid, 2) picks a trade war fight with our two closest allies, our neighbors and 3) creates an immigration black hole in Guantanamo. China is still a currency manipulator, but never fear; Trump just announced a Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency reserve, and who is the biggest stockpiler of crypto? Yup, China. Worst of all, he switched alliances from the post-WWII order that we built as a country for our benefit to siding with a ruthless thug of a dictator in Putin. The damage being done internationally is catastrophic, and will hurt our country for decades.

As for picking these trade wars with other nations, he seems completely unaware that the deals he made in his first term are what he is arguing were bad deals and the pretexts for the trade wars this term. It’s hard to take seriously someone who so egregiously contradicts himself.

Appointments

In 2017, Trump had the benefit of competent people around him. Smart Republicans who had been shut out of the Executive Branch for eight years were now back. They weren’t the best per se, but most were acceptable. ⁷ At the time, one of the next most questionable ones was Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, not because he wasn’t smart enough, but because he didn’t have much of a government background working for ExxonMobil as CEO.

Well, Tillerson quickly identfied Trump as a “fucking moron” (his exact words) and lost his job. Short durations working for Trump were a common thread in the Administration, culminating with Anthony Scaramucci’s 2 weeks as press secretary which is now a running joke he even is in on.

This time around, Trump has the bottom of the barrel working for him. A Fox News personality is Defense Secretary. A Russian syncophant and someone who met with Bashar Al-Asaad in Syria is his Director of National Intelligence. A toadie who wanted to rip to shreds the FBI now leads it. A man who is averse to the most basic health care in vaccines is now in charge of Health and Human Services. As if to underscore the incompetence and hypocrisy, an appointee at OPM tasked with defending DOGE cuts in federal personnel and enforcing the “name five things you did last week” policy for Elon Musk, well she was found to have been posting influencer videos on Instagram during business hours from her OPM office this past week. On top of that, Elon Musk, a man who didn’t even go through an appointment process because his role is still amorphous and undefined, is tearing apart the bureacracy and firing government officials, then trying to rehire them back when he realizes the cuts are too deep. If there’s one thing I know, it’s that incompetence in this regard comes back to bite administrations in harsh ways when things go wrong, like they always do.

Unlike last time, there will be starker consequences because of the horde of deplorables working for Trump now.

Domestic Politics

Priority #1 in 2017 was Trump’s border wall.

As of March 1, 2025 still not done and no real progress. In fact, individual states such as Texas, New Mexico and Arizona, have built more of a border wall than the federal government did under Trump.

Other than that, Trump minimized the Affordable Care Act by reducing the penalty for non-compliance down to zero.

This time around? Trump really doesn’t even have a domestic policy agenda. It’s just breaking government. He seems to be making everything up as he goes along.

Conclusion

Trump was bolstered last time by a base that kept his approval numbers around 40% for most of his term and a good political enviroment which could stand up to the onslaught. Things were good economically and internationally that his supporters didn’t abandon him. When COVID hit, it wasn’t seen as his fault, since it was a worldwide pandemic, so much of his support stuck with him.

This time around he doesn’t have that luxury. He’s starting from a position of economic trouble. The world is less secure. People are nervous and anxious. As problems mount, particularly as he continues to break shit and his supporters feel the pain, his numbers will plummet. He’ll be less able to get things done. He’ll be less popular and it’ll begin to look like the end of The Apprentice when he could only get Gene Simmons, Omarosa and Gary Busey to show up for him. As he looks more like a lame duck President, the Trump show will get cancelled and people will be more than ready to move on.

If the economy collapses hit deep enough, you’re likely also to get a collapse of his regular MAGA support too. People don’t trust what Musk is doing, and always cling to their pocketbooks when they vote. With Republicans in complete control, they have nobody else to blame when things go wrong. George W. Bush’s support cratered following Hurricane Katrina, striking right in the heart of where his base lives, his administrative incompetence laid out bare for the world to see. He recovered some only to get hit by the Housing Crash in the 2008 election year. By the time he left office, his approval was in the teens/low 20s.

We could see that with Trump at the rate he’s going.

PurpleAmerica’s People of the Past Week

The Good

Greenland. The semi-autonomous territory of Denmark held elections this week and the Center-Right Demokraatik Party won. While all three major parties advocated for independence from Denmark, there were varying degrees as to timelines. Demokraats pushed to slow roll independence, focusing on establishing a solid foundation first. An analyst put it this way:

Note to Americans; this is how you intelligently vote during elections.

March Madness. Yup, it’s that time again. Get your brackets ready.

Ukraine Cease Fire. Talks this week in Saudi Arabia brought to the forefront a potential cease fire in the years long conflict. The ball is now in Putin’s court, and he has stated he has no such intention. Gee, who is the warmonger here Mr. Trump?

The Bad

The Education Department. Most people think it covers all Education, but most schools are covered by state government. The Education Department covers mostly colleges, special education and student loans. Former WWE exec Linda McMahon brought the elbow down from the top rope and sacked most everyone. The fallout hasn’t been assessed yet, but expect a Royal Rumble.

Mahmoud Kahlil. Kahlil was a pro-Palestinian protest leader at Columbia University last year. This week, the Trump Administration revoked his green card and initiated deportation proceedings against him. Agree with him or not (I didn’t, and I don’t see Palestinians protesting Trump who flat out said he’d raze Gaza for a luxury resort area), this case represents a problematic First Amendment issue; what kind of consequences can result from people exercising free speech? Khalil is married to an American citizen and was going through the citizenship process. Can the US just kick out such people if they legally support issues administrations don’t like?

Government Shutdowns. Every year we go through the same circus. Funds need to be appopriated. Democrats support funding, Republicans try and gut it. Neither side budges and we have a shutdown (or they come to terms at the last minute in negotiations). In the interim, our markets falter, our bonds get downgraded and outside investment stops flowing in because they can’t rely on Republican intransigence to actually govern. Just once, could we forego the circus and just push through bills without the fight? America needs a break.

The Ugly

We’re going to give the only Ugly this week to someone who TRULY had an ugly week, Elon Musk. As I put it on Monday this week:

It only got worse from there. He’s called for cutting Social Security and Medicare, and claimed the Tesla Boycott was “illegal” (didn’t know we all had to buy a Tesla?). He then called Senator Mark Kelly, a veteran pilot and astronaut who left NASA to help his wife recover from an assassination attempt being shot in the face, yeah Musk called him a “traitor” for going to Ukraine as a U.S. Senator. Since Trump’s election, Elon Musk’s net worth has dropped over $150 BILLION, or more than the discretionary budget of the entire U.S. Veteran’s Affairs Department, which he has been trying to gut.

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PurpleAmerica’s Dad/Uncle/Cheesy Joke of the Week

A man walks into a bar and sees a short red haired man with a red beard, dressed in green, sitting in the corner. After a few drinks, he builds up the courage and goes over to the dimunitive person and asks “Are you a Leprechaun?” The small man looked up at him and replies, “Well, yes, yes I am!” Delighted the guy asked “Does that mean I get your pot of gold?” The short little red haird person looked up at him and said, “Well, first you have to light my pipe, then you have to buy me a drink, and finally you have to give me a footrub.” The elated man dutifully pulled out his lighter and lit the man’s pipe, then went to the bar and brought back glasses of Jameson. He then took the little man’s boots off and saw the ugliest, stankiest feet ever in humanity. He then put back a shot and started to go to work on giving the man a footrub.

“I can’t believe I’m doing this,” he mumbled.

“I can’t believe you actually believed I was a leprechaun,” responded the other guy.

And with that…

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Footnotes and Fun Stuff

1. To reiterate, because I still get snide comments, coups are pushed by people who don’t have power trying to seize it. Republicans currently have control of the Legislative and Executive branches and the GOP seems content to let Trump do what he wants. That is not a coup. There’s still recourse through the courts and things are winding their way through there as I write this. “But what about Musk?” people say—well, Trump could fire him tomorrow; you can’t get rid of people like that if it were a coup. Democrats pushing for extra-Constitutional means to control Trump however, THAT would be a coup. Can you see the distinction there?

2. All three legitimate ways for a President to leave office, ergo, not Coups.

3. A more humorous version of this is that a friend of mine who’s father is suffering from Alzheimer’s says that the guy repeats “Fuck Trump” over and over again when he’s agitated. He’ll be sitting there and will just mumble out “Fuck Trump” out of the blue for no notiecable reason.

4. Before I get bombarded with people saying “Not most people, he didn’t get a majority, he only got a plurality,” fine. You’re right. But he got MORE votes than every other candidate including the one you voted for. So STFU and just take it, because more people wanted him than wanted who you did. Accept it. It’s the first fucking stage after denial.

5. For comparison, see Chris Cillizza. That’s all he talks about is the horse race, and he does it poorly.

6. This detente would turn out to be short lived.

7. Among the unacceptable was General Michael Flynn who was confirmed as National Security Advisor, and then resigned after a month, when he was found to have lied about Russian connections during his confirmation hearings. He was eventually convicted for working for a foreign government and them pardoned by Trump.