GOP Debate Dispatch: What to Expect From The Candidates
Day 2 of Special Coverage from Milwaukee for the First GOP Debate
Good morning from the Cream City again. This is BrewerBritt filling in for PurpleAmerica this week with on the ground coverage of the First GOP Presidential Debate . Yesterday, we covered “Why Wisconsin?” along with some history and trivial tidbits about Wisconsin’s constituency. Today we’re taking a look at the candidates.
Admittedly, this is not the Avengers we are talking about, or even the pre-Giannis Bucks. It's not even the Sausage Race options at the Brewer game.1 This is a pretty weak crowd that pales in comparison to the main non-show (who we won’t mention by name; I mean, why?) It’s kind of like having an orchestra with only a triangle, a couple trombones and a tuba, with some woodwinds thrown in to blow hot air.
So the main question is “Will they go after that non-show?” Of course, the reason he’s not showing up is that he is indicted (again), has to appear in court in Georgia and chose instead to go on Elon Musk’s network instead (I still have a hard time calling it “X” which feels like it’s a softcore porn site) to be interviewed by Mr. Beta Male himself Tucker Carlson. The thing is, that steaming pile of garbage is expected to draw more eyeballs than this one, which speaks volumes for the quality of the talent that will be onstage at Fiserv Forum. Most in Wisconsin would rather watch the Bucks G-League team than this crew.
Nonetheless, one of these people is likely to be one of the two major American party’s nominee (barring that non-named guy avoiding jail time) so it helps to go through who will be on stage and what they should do. This will be the first real occassion many of them will have to speak directly to the American public, so they need as much exposure as they can.
So without further ado…
Vivek Ramaswamy
The Republican Party has a habit of promoting odd left field candidates, with no government experience, that kind of come out of nowhere. Think Ben Carson, Herman Cain, Carly Fiorina and Alan Keyes.2 Vivek (rhymes with “take”) fits that mold well.
Ramaswamy is making in-roads with a deeply libertarian contingent of business conservatives. He talks passionately and with conviction, which is more than can be said about most who will be on that stage. The problem is his actual policy proposals are completely impractical and have zero chance of actual implementation.
But you know what? Neither did that other guy’s who won’t be on stage, and he managed to win in 2016 on strength of personality alone. If someone like Ramaswamy can catch fire and keep it, he may be a formidable candidiate. As for this debate, all he really has to do is seem like a viable alternative. It’s a low bar, but until he clears it, he’ll just be seen as an outside crank blowing through millions of his own money.
Mike Pence
If there is a divisive figure on the stage in Milwaukee to the crowd, it will be Mike Pence. I’m actually curious as to what kind of response he will get. On the one hand, he’s demonstrated strong conviction, being true to the Constitution, and has solid conservative credentials in every sense of the word. On the other hand, he crossed “he who will not be named” and in today’s Cult of Personality GOP, that is a HUGE no-no.
The fact is, I’ve always found Pence kind of a boring candidate. People remember “no energy” Jeb Bush, but to me Pence has always been a snoozer. But out of everyone on stage, he has the strongest name ID; being Vice President has it’s privilege. You’ll know immediately what kind of chance Pence has at all based on the applause at the beginning of the debate. If he gets even half the crowd applauding, he has a shot. If he is met with silence, or worse yet roundly booed, he hasn’t a chance and may as well just drop the campaign.
Nikki Haley
I’ve always been a fan of female candidates in the GOP debates (YEAH! GIRL POWER!). The men always are blowhards with all the bombast and it’s the women who always keep the show on course and seem like the reasoned ones. In the entire 2016 cycle when nobody would dare confront Voldemort, it was Carly Fiorina who did it with a strong, biting jab. It was the one occassion during the entire cycle there was no response from the indicted one.
Nikki Haley is no wilting flower either. She can hang with the big boys and deliver a punch. She’s also very smart, articulate and appealing in her demeanor and the manor she presents her thoughts. Its one of the reasons she’s been a go-to speaker for the GOP on Sunday morning shows regularly.
So far, she has been relatively quiet lately, not making very many waves. Here is a huge opportunity for her to make a move with an attack on the current top of the ticket and a chance to chart a new direction for the GOP. If she takes it, her numbers may go through the roof; if she doesn’t people may start comparing her to former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (which is not a good thing).3
Chris Christie
Christie is a professional political pugilist. We all know what he is going to do. He is going to pummel the GOP frontrunner again, and again, and again. In 30 seconds in 2016 he completely ruined Marco Rubio’s chances of becoming President. Imagine what he can do with 2 hours in which the person won’t even have the chance to rebut or refute what Christie is saying.
So the question becomes, do the other candidates follow Christie’s lead, or do they actually go out to defend “He who is not there, rubbing elbows with Tucker?” They can’t win unless they take down the top, but the GOP right now is with Tucker’s guest and it may take time to peel them away. Taking their time didn’t help the 2016 candidates. Will they follow Christie into the breach? That’ll be the sign that “Orange Fever” is finally breaking and if the news on Thursday morning is that Christie was joined by other candidates, then we may actually have an interesting nominating contest.
Tim Scott
It’s rare for me not to hear bad things about any candidate. Ask someone about a candidate and you’ll hear “On the one hand, on the other…” kind of stuff, or you’ll hear one person love them and another person hate them. It’s politics. It’s what happens. As a great man once said, you can’t please all the people all the time.
You know who I haven’t heard a single bad thing about? Tim Scott. People genuinely seem to like him, or at least hear him out. He’s not off putting or controversial. He passes the “Someone you can have a beer with” test and in Wisconsin that’s a big deal.
If that presents a problem, it’s this: people don’t vote for their second or third favorite candidate and as nice and popular as Scott is, he is kind of mediocre in that regard. He’s not as inspiring so much as he is a “super nice guy.” If he can make a few strong statements and improve on that “inspiration score” he may be able to break out of the pack.
Ron DeSantis
Have you ever played political bingo? Usually whenever there is a debate or a national speech of some kind, someone makes up bingo cards with varying things on it that people listen for during the speeches. It makes an otherwise mundane event humorous and makes you pay close attention.
DeSantis’ speech prep was leaked to the press last week.4 Truth be told, much of it was the kind of typical stuff you normally would expect from debate prep work (“speak about your vision for America 3-5x”) and others were downright bizarre (“attack Vivek at least 3x”). But the reason I bring this up is that the hot item among the GOP political crowd here in Milwaukee is “Ron DeSantis Bingo” where all of his debate prep items are in individual squares on the board, along with some other various verbal tics and crutches (my favorite is “DeSantis Mentions Disney”). When everyone knows what you are going to say before you say it, you’ve already lost as a candidate. Just ask Marco Rubio.
For a guy who was once hailed as the best alternative to “Kmart Hilton” it seems more like a death knell. I’m not sure anything can be done to save his campaign at this point.
Asa Hutchinson and Doug Borghum
If at the end of the night you remember anything these two said, much less who they are, it would be somewhat of a miracle.
I’m not saying it can’t happen. They are both well spoken, smart people. It’s just that nobody knows who they are, and they had to resort to essentially paying people to make donations in order to cross the donor threshold to make the stage.5
If they really want to make a splash, one of them should say “F**K [The 45th President]” and watch the donations pour in.
PurpleAmerica’s Cultural Corner
I mentioned yesterday that Milwaukee has had four Socialist mayors and people responded immediately with this scene from Wayne’s World (which I have to admit, is a favorite of mine).
Also, ever since I typed the phrase “Cult of Personality,” I can’t get this rock classic out of my head.
PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject
Tomorrow we take the plunge. Stay tuned all week as we cover the Milwaukee GOP debate. I will be in the audience at the debate and will provide commentary throughout.
BrewerBritt Out.
Footnotes and Fun Stuff
Always bet on Chorizo.
Who actually was an ambassador but was more known as a radio personality and the person who lost the Senate race to Barack Obama in Illinois in 2004.
If you do not remember, Pawlenty was surging in the 2012 GOP primaries as Mitt Romney was flailing early on. Pawlenty had the opportunity end Romney’s campaign early at a debate when he was given softball question where he could have tied ObamaCare (a huge campaign issue at the time) to RomneyCare in Massachusetts from which it was based. Pawlenty refused to take the bait, his numbers plummeted and he was out a month later.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/desantis-debate-memo-urges-defend-trump-attack-ramaswamy-rcna100414
In fairness, it was the Super PAC linked to DeSantis, and under campaign finance law they are not allowed to DIRECTLY interact with the campaign. One of the ways campaigns get around this is that they post it in some corner of the internet that smart campaign politcos know about and it gets picked up the campaign. The problem though is that ANYONE can then see it and mock it like the way they are.
This is a practice whereby you offer a $10 gift card to anyone to make a donation and encourage people to spend $1. It’s expensive, but it’s worth it in the free publicity you get just by being on stage for the debates.