GOP Debate Dispatch: Why Wisconsin? It's About More than Being a Swing State
PurpleAmerica Covers the First GOP Debate
Like the beginning of every episode of “That ‘70’s Show” HELLO WISCONSIN!
PurpleAmerica is taking the week off writing this week. With the GOP Debate in Milwaukee, he thought it better to get input and reporting from the source and as a politico living in Milwaukee, he reached out to me. As I have another job where I get paid for this sort of thing, I’m keeping it anonymous, brief and more of an overview. However, for now, just call me BrewerBritt. 1
For a first post, I thought it best to acquaint you with the Badger state; why Republicans chose it for the 2024 Convention and First Debate, it’s typical politial demographics and what drives voters here. So let’s begin.
Wisconsin Political Geography
The first thing that always stands out to political outsiders is how every election Wisconsin is one of the closest two or three states every time. If you need a bellweather state, you can feel pretty comfortably going with Wisconsin every time.
The large amount of Democratic vote is contained within two counties; Milwaukee and Dane (home to Madison). These are not just Democratic, but VERY liberal areas. Milwaukee has elected four socialist mayors in it’s past and Madison is one of the most liberal cities in the country. These two counties so often put their thumb on the Democratic Party that it is rare for a statewide candidate to come from anywhere else in the state. There are other areas where the Democratic vote comes from (western Wisconsin with its many state colleges, northern Wisconsin on Lake Superior, Fox Valley labor vote) but these pale in comparison to the two Dem pillars.
Republicans have their own pillars, often referred to as the WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington). These are the first tier suburbs of Milwaukee and are your very typical business/country club, white flight, high income Republican areas. When Republicans do well, these three offset the margins in Milwaukee and Madison. While there are some cultural MAGA conservatives in this area, the majority of the counties are NOT cultural conservatives, but are more business conservative focused. This is the area that Scott Walker played like a fiddle to win the governorship two straight terms and coast through a recall election.
The rest of the state largely consists of two areas; the BOW counties and then outstate Wisconsin. Let’s start with Outstate Wisconsin. Outstate Wisconsin is Trump country. Its the cultural conservative, MAGA margin growing area that puts “Let’s Go Brandon” flags on their porch and pro-life billboards all over. Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by increasing the voting totals in these counties seemingly out of nowhere. The BOW counties on the other hand (Brown, Outagamie, Winnebago) are the state industrial and manufacturing area. Its probably 55/45 Republican, but Democrats can do well here from time, particularly as it is home to a number of colleges. This is a growing area, and kind of the swing area of the swing state; do well there and you’ll likely win.
Wisconsin Republicans
The Wisconsin GOP political apparatus used to be sane, rational and seek to expand its appeal. Think Tommy Thompson, who won FOUR straight terms. Think Paul Ryan who worked his way as a policy wonk to the chairmanship of the House Budget Committee and Speaker of the House (and Vice Presidential candidate for Mitt Romney). Think Reince Priebus who as state chair elevated GOP electoral prospects in the state. These are not passionate true believers or cultural conservative icons, but rather politically pragmatic people who know how to get things done in the state and in DC.
Then the Tea Party came to Wisconsin and upended everything. The 2010 wave brought into power the forementioned Walker and a radical state legislature that had the votes for Walker to do pretty much anything. If anything changed and realigned and disrupted the politics of the state, it was Scott Walker. He single handedly blew up everything, and the GOP has been playing defense every since.
Walker’s biggest initiatives were to gut public sector unions (primarily for teachers) and create gerrymanders in the state that would ensure Democrats never get within breathing distance of a majority in the legislature again.2 The actions were so divisive that neighbors began hating neighbors. Republicans took delight in Dem schadenfraude.3 When Walker eventually lost the governorship to Tony Evers, they stripped the governorship of powers in the lame duck session and Evers, like him or hate him, has been governing a state with one hand tied behind his back.
This level of partisanship is distasteful to a large contingent of swing voters in the state, but also to the business conservatives in the WOW counties, and in recent elections their numbers have waned and even began voting Democratic. They don’t like the direction the state is going and the GOP is now shrinking in the state. Other than Ron Johnson, they haven’t won a statewide election since 2016. This past spring, thanks to the Supreme Court Dobbs decision and a horrible Republican candidate, the Democrats elected Janet Protasiewicz to the WI Supreme Court, giving them a majority on the court for the first time in ages, and as a result will likely remove that gerrymander.
Which is why the GOP convention is here in the biggest city in the swingiest of swing states. There is simply no path to the White House for the GOP if it can’t win Wisconsin or appeal to the broad GOP coalition within the state. To win, they have to merge these dichotomous factions; they have to reconcile the cultural MAGA wing with the business GOP wing. My hunch is that if Trump is the candidate again (looking more likely) it would be very difficult to do. However, there are plenty of other candidates who COULD feasibly do it, particularly against a weak Biden as a candidate. In that sense, it’s a good thing that Trump will not be at this debate, as it may create an opening for some of the others.
PurpleAmerica’s Recommended Stories
If you want to follow Wisconsin Politics there are a few follows I recommend for everyone, particularly those from out of state.
First off, its almost a requirement to follow the Marquette Poll. (@mupoll). Charles Franklin and the people who run the Marquette Poll are the gold standard in polling and have their finger on the pulse of Wisconsin.
I know PurpleAmerica is a fan of the Bulwark and Charlie Sykes. Sykes was a broadcaster here in the Badger State for years and was really inside the heart of the state GOP for years. As he somewhat burned those bridges some once Trump came around, I don’t know how much contact he still maintains with the party but I’ve often found his insights and comments on Wisconsin politics right on point.
You may be tempted to go to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel for political coverage. I’ve always found it hit or miss. The Wisconsin State Journal (Madison) actually has a better sense of political coverage, particularly at the state level.
Laslty, there is one guy who REALLY seems to have Wisconsin down pat and that is Charlie Berens. If you want to know what the state is like you have to watch his videos on FB, Twitter, TikTok, pretty much anywhere. Here’s a taste.
PurpleAmerica’s Obscure Fact of the Day
The GOP got its start in a little schoolhouse in Ripon, Wisconsin.
The only other things to come out of Ripon, Wisconsin are “Rippin’ good cookies” and Harrison Ford who went to Ripon College and once referred to it as “harder to get thrown out of than it was to get into.”
PurpleAmerica’s Cultural Corner
To appeal to voters in Wisconsin, there are a few things candidates must, or should, do.
Drink a beer with the locals. If they really want to impress them, they can drink an old fashioned or in the morning when making the rounds, a bloody mary.
I’ll add on the above; yes, it’s common in GOP circles to avoid Bud Light at the moment. In Wisconsin, it always was, not because of the whole bruhaha last summer but because Milwaukee is home to Miller Brewing, and Bud was Anheuser-Busch. Believe it or not I do know of occassions of politicians coming to Wisconsin and “having a beer with the locals” only to order a Budweiser and completely alienate who they were talking to. Main point, know the locals and their tastes.
Praise the Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Brewers. The more they know and drop names of players, the better response they’ll get. It’ll be interesting to see if any candidates drop “Aaron Rodgers” as a name; now that he is in New York, he’s kind of on the outs with the locals and it would be a major faux pas if they did. The savvy politician would praise Jordan Love’s (or any of the young WRs) future. If you can spell “Antetokounmpo” or recite the 1982 Brewers World Series Starting Lineup, I’d say you got their vote.
Eat some cheese curds, get a brat with everything, and talk about how great an American Icon Bob Uecker is.
Most states’ pols go to state fairs. In Wisconsin, Summerfest tends to be bigger event and its over by this time. If I were them, I’d just wander around the American Family Field tailgaters and mingle. You’d get more bang for the buck and they’d probably give you free beer to boot.
Say “pop” and “bubbler” and comment on how bad a driver the “FIBs”4 are. You’d laugh, but locals can spot outsiders quickly by how they reference these. Saying these makes them feel like you are one of them.
PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject
Tomorrow we’ll discuss the candidates for the debate, expectations, and maybe bring in some anecdotal interviews I’m making here with local voters. The debate is still days away so I don’t know how much are paying attention to it yet, but come Monday, gears will shift and it’ll be a focus.
I hope you will continue to join us!
—BrewerBritt
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Footnotes and Fun Stuff
For the record, yes, I am upset that I have to miss the Brewers game vrs the Twins for a political debate. I’d rather watch Yelly and the Crew march toward the playoffs than Asa Hutchinson talk in platitudes or DeSantis mangle his way on a national stage for 2 hours.
You may think I’m kidding about that. In 2020, Democrats won the state legislative statewide vote, and Republicans maintained an almost 60-40 legislative advantage. That’s how good it is.
When Republicans biggest major issue is “sticking it to the libs” this is what they are talking about. It really is a driving force in their motivations.
This is how Wisconsinites refer to “F**king Illinois B**tards.” It’s easy to win Wisconsinites over just by dropping it in a sentence.