Reading the Tea Leaves on the DNC Vote
A New DNC Head is Elected, and It Tells Us a Lot
The voters have spoken, and what the Democratic activists, donors, party heads, elected officials and supporters wanted was more Minnesota. Minnesota Democratic1 Party Head Ken Martin to lead them into 2028. He won a majority of the vote on the first ballot, in what was expected to be a coronation for his opponent, fellow midwestern party head Ben Wikler from Wisconsin. Wikler had the support of most major elected party heads and progressive groups composing the largest contingent of the Democratic Party coalition, so Martin’s election seems somewhat suprising in that regard.
Martin had been the head of the Minnesota Dems since 2011. In that time, he saw the transition from the state being a closely contested purple state, with Tim Pawlenty and Norm Coleman elected to statewide offices, and not far removed from Jesse Ventura in the Governor’s chair, to a period where Democrats control every major statewide office, the state has trended towards the left, and but for a close election last fall Dems had complete control of the state legislature. Wisconsin on the other hand has had mixed results in a serious uphill climb. Still reeling from the disaster that was Scott Walker, Act 10 and the horrific gerrymander which made governance practically impossible, Wikler inherited a mess of a state party he unified and moved in the right direction. Unfortunately, the only successes he can take credit for is Governor Tony Evers election and Biden’s 2020 election. Everything else was questionable; Tammy Baldwin was a popular incumbent, the State Supreme Court races while contentious were voters recoiling from single party rule and that loss to Ron Johnson in a winnable year by Mandela Barnes still stings. Wisconsin could not be relied on outside of Milwaukee and Madison and that demonstrates most clearly where Dems have the most work. They look at Minnesota and see better numbers outside of the metro centers that elected Tim Walz to the House for a decade and then the Governorship.
Martin came out and said right away that he was going to take the fight to Trump. And if he follows through on that, that is what Dem activists want. Looking at Wikler and his support (Pelosi, Schumer, the same Dem bureacracy), they looked old, tired, dated and not as pugilistic anymore. The voters didn’t want more of the same, they wanted a new direction, and that’s what it seems like they’ll get. Martin has a lot of work to do, that’s for sure, but this feels similar to 2004 when Howard Dean got elected to the DNC Chair against more party insiders, and Dean set out to compete in all 50 states (the famed “50 state strategy”). Did it work? Not entirely, but it did fuel energy in state organizations that hadn’t sniffed a Dem candidate winning in years, led to the election of Barack Obama, and a filibuster-proof 60 vote majority in the Senate. Trump is pulling that slingshot as far as he possibly can and when the s**t hits the fan the electorate is going to swing wildly to the left, the only questions are how far and how fast.
So how does this pan out in terms of winners and losers? Here are our immediate takes:
Winners
Amy Klobuchar. Kobuchar was gaining steam in 2020, right up until Biden won South Carolina and the party folded behind him. A national party chair who works hand in hand with a moderate candidate like Klobuchar would be in great shape to set up a feasible playing field favorable to Minnesota’s favorite daughter in 2028. That Martin came out of nowhere to win this vote just shows that she and Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz have some strong internal clout on the direction the party goes.
Midwestern Dems. This would have been the case also had Ben Wikler won. But seeing current DNC Chair Jaime Harrison limp out of the position tells us a few things. The identity politicking era within the Dem Party is over. The continued appeal to the coastal Democrats is also over. The party recognizes they need to start winning in the middle of the country again and chose two of the best midwestern chairs as the top 2 votegetters. A renewed focus on states like Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, Michigan and Pennsylvania will set the right tone.
Moderates. Not that it’s a huge win, but Wikler had the support of most progressive organizations who wanted to advocate for more liberal policies, and maintain much of the discourse of the last few years, even though to many it proved alienating. Wikler’s loss demonstrates that most want to move away from that direction and instead go back to the less ideological and identity driven themes that appeal across the spectrum.
Losers
Pelosi, Schumer, and the Party Establishment. Wow was that an a**kicking. That only happens when people really want to see new blood. Pelosi and Schumer have been around forever and should be shown the door. Hakeem Jeffries waited until last night to endorse, but he carried little weight with him anyway. The major groups that have been loudest about Democratic politics and the progressive direction it is going got smacked upside the head by pragmatism.
Coastal Dems. Without a doubt, Wikler was the favorite of the Dem NY and California donor class. He would have been fine letting them continue dominating the discussions. Instead what we saw was a shift in the center of gravity away from the status quo. NY Dems who can’t win a seat to George Santos are not going to have money diverted from winnable seats in the midwest anymore. That’s a good thing.
Presidential Candidates not named Amy Klobuchar. For the most part, we don’t know who that’ll be yet, and the leading candidates from 2020, Warren and Bernie, are both ancient. Pete Buttigieg is still out there, but is currently unemployed without a base of support. Kamala Harris just lost (even though it wasn’t really her fault in any way, but she has the stench of “loser” on her now) Every other candidate is going to be relatively new. People underestimate the power of having a national base for fundraising and an organization you can rely on to win. Not only does Klobuchar still have that, she has the chair of her state party making the rules. It’s like the way Tom Brady had Roger Goodell, Michael Jordan had David Stern and Patrick Mahomes has the refs on their sides. He’s going to set everything up, and all she has to do is knock them down.
In any event, get ready America, because you’re going to start feeling Minnesota.
PurpleAmerica’s Cultural Corner
“Feeling Minnesota” was a terrible 1990s movie starring Keanu Reeves (fresh off of “Speed”) and Cameron Diaz (fresh off of “There’s Something about Mary”) in a very unromantic romantic comedy. In all seriousness though, it was terrible, despite what many Minnesota women say.
PurpleAmerica’s Obscure Fact of the Day
People sometimes mock Dean’s “50-state Strategy” but one of the things it did was shift the weight of state party delegates from typical Dem states to a broader national electorate. This was taken advantage of by Obama during the primaries, who focused on primaries and caucuses in typical GOP states like Nebraska, Idaho, Montana and such. He would rack up huge delegate margins in those states, and then fight to close races in the larger typical Dem states that Hillary would win. The result was that coming out of Super Tuesday, the race was a dead heat, and when people realized Obama could win, the momentum dramatically shifted to him.
PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject
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Footnotes and Fun Stuff
In Minnesota, the official title is the “Democratic- Farmer- Labor Party” or “DFL”.