Relying on The Unreliable Voters

The Big, Gaping Hole in the Democratic Coalition and How Haley Can Help

A recent poll Selzer & Co poll showed that following Biden and Trump securing their nominations within their respective parties, Trump shows a 7(!) point lead.

“How can this be?” every rational person who understands the issues, the stakes and how utterly insane Trump is shouted aloud. Well, CNN’s political polling stats nerd Harry Enten broke it down pretty succinctly. It has to do with who the Democratic coalition primarily is:

• Progressives

• Young voters

• People of Color

• Women

• Educated voters

Biden is doing just fine with educated voters. With women, his numbers are even with Trump, but they'll come home as the Dobbs decision gets broadcast more as a national issue. It’s the others he has work to do on. The bullet point synopsis by Enten is as follows:

• Biden was actually up with white voters, about 3 points. Not much, but when you consider the sheer number of white voters in America, how that translates to expanding the map, and the fact that Democrats still need about 40% of them total to win, improving where they were should be a good thing.

• The reasons for Biden’s numbers collapse come almost entirely from the very people he has spent his past 5 years trying to court (and thus giving the impression he is more liberal than he is); young voters, progressives and people of color.

  • His numbers are up slightly with people over 40+. With people below 40, the margin between him and Trump actually decreased to the point it was only a couple point difference, when in 2020 it was well over 20.

  • His numbers with people of color have dropped about 20 points from where they were in 2020. Now, I realize that “People of Color” is pretty broad, but when you look at the two largest groups within that, hispanics and blacks, the numbers within both groups show a drop of 20 points.

  • Despite Biden’s consistent cancelation of student loan debt, a media operation specifically targeting the youth demographic and working his ass off to appeal to young college age voters, his numbers there are down even greater than 20 points, outright collapsing.

  • Whereas Trump’s numbers were up among people who consider themselves “Very Conservative,” Biden’s numbers were downright anemic among people saying they were “Very Liberal.”

• Add it all up, and what you see is Biden’s winning coalition in 2020 is showing signs of apathy, antagonism and outright hostility.

So why is Biden currently where he is with these voters? The bigger picture is that Biden and Democrats are cratering among working class voters, among which all of these groups above are disproportionately impacted. Biden needs these voters, especially those sympathetic towards him on the issues, to show up on Election Day. At this point in the election cycle, that’s not happening and likely won’t happen until the election gets into full swing. Biden’s numbers will go up only if it becomes apparent when these voters show they intend to vote on election day and come home to their natural party coalition.

It’s because with the exception of those over 40+ who vote in high numbers, every one of these groups are what pollsters refer to as “unreliables.” They’re the voters that are MOST likely not to show up on election day. When pollsters ask them where they are now, most are indifferent and question whether they’ll even vote. According to Pew, what is the voting turnout of these voters?:

• 40% of Hispanics are not even registered to vote, with another 20 registered but rarely voting.

• Only 31% of African-American voters vote regularly, with 30% of AA voters saying they vote rarely and another 17% not even registered.

• 65% of voters 18-29 either vote rarely or are not registered.

• Economic progressives skew heavily toward the bottom of the income scale. 53% of those making less than $30k vote rarely or are unregistered.

• Lastly, progressives tend to go to church or religious activity less often. Among voters never or rarely going to religious activities, 51% rarely vote or aren’t registered.

These are not the groups of people you want to rely on and build an electoral juggernaut around if the fate of the nation is in their hands. Their voting patterns just aren’t reliable enough to consistently win elections. Nonetheless, its where Democrats are these days. So where is Biden going wrong by these voters? Let’s dive a little further.

Hispanic Voters

First off, grouping all Hispanics into a single subgroup is part of the problem; there are different kinds of voters within this group (e.g. whether the person is first generation or third matters a lot, along with where their heritage came from), but because polling companies only compile and group them this way, it’s all we have to go on.

What’s the #1 issue among this group? Immigration and border security, and its heavily in favor of a strong border policy. You would think the horrors that were unleashed by Trump along the border in his four years would be a huge bonus for Biden; I mean, Trump separated kids from their parents and put them all in cages for crying out loud. People don’t look at that anymore, they look at the current status and see Biden in charge. Biden is seen as inept at it, even as he was willing to sign a GOP bill that gave them everything they wanted. Doesn’t matter, it’s still his show. They may not be on Trump’s side of it, but they aren’t on Biden’s either, and if things continue, the’re more likely to stay home than vote for either.

The #2 issue: Inflation. Hispanics make up a large part of the working class, and inflation has disproportionately impacted them more than other groups. It doesn’t matter that the US came out of COVID with the best handle on inflation than another industrialized country, people feel the pinch and blame the person in charge.

African-American Voters

Biden was the VP for the first African American President and has the first African American Vice President. Does that matter to these voters? Nope.

Believe it or not, when polling most African Americans, they tend to be more conservative on issues. Many go to church and are evangelical.¹ Many support police officers and want to cut crime down. Inflation tends to hurt many of them much more disproportionately, as costs increase but their wages don’t.

So for as much as Biden has elevated the status and visibility of successful African Americans in his administration, he hasn’t improved much locally at the grassroots with these voters. Add to that, that the most progressive African American voices are screaming he hasn’t done enough (this is how Cornel West actually became a Presidential Candidate) and you can see the shaky foundation that Biden has underneath him with this group. Biden was able to strengthen that during the 2020 primaries with Rep. Jim Clyburn’s support. He will have to do more like that again.

Young Voters

Christ, where to begin. Biden has done pretty much everything he could to appeal to them. Free Covid shots? Done. Student Loan Debt? Gone. Huge bustling economy for people fresh out of high school and college? Clicking. Green initiatives? Adopted. The first gun bill passed through Congress since Columbine? Signed.

So what’s happening? Aside from the fact this demographic is notoriously fickle and tends to sway from one popular issue to the next without regard to what was previously done? Social Justice Warring. That’s what’s happening.

Without a doubt, things are much better for these groups since Biden got elected in 2020. They don’t care. Whatever he does, it’s not enough. The nature of the issues they care about is that they take a lot of time, sometimes generations, to make the kind of changes these groups demand, and they just aren’t patient enough— they demand change now.

The current issue is the Israeli-Gaza Conflict. They are siding with the Palestinians in huge numbers. Biden is being far more diplomatic, cautious and restrained (which is the place the US President should be in this). That’s not acceptable to this group. They demonstrate their disapproval by venting on it to pollsters.

Where Does That Leave Biden?

Biden and the Democrats’ theory of the case has always been 1) It’s about Trump and 2) Women’s Reproductive Freedom. Since Dobbs, every time abortion has been on the ballot in some capacity, it has always worked out in Democrats’ favor, so that is no surprise that they will lean into that. Most all of Biden’s other actions as President have catered to the educated cosmopolitan crowd as well, which will get him solid votes in the coasts, urban areas and into the suburbs.²

The best thing Biden can do is have a Sister Souljah Moment, tell them all to grow up, quit their whining and get in line. That would show his strength, appeal to many of the conservatives and moderates currently fleeing and signal he isn’t beholden to the progressives everyone seems to can’t stand.

All of the figures mentioned above though were corroborated by the Polling company Blueprint, who also compiled polls to identify the 2020 Biden supporters considering voting for Trump. What did they find? Here’s Liam Kerr from The Welcome Party paraphrasing:

That doesn’t mean the people who are diapproving of Biden right now are going to come out and vote against him in November either. Thing is Trump doesn’t have to appeal to other voters outside his orbit, he can just bet on non-Trump voters not showing up. Why not? It’s the primary reason Hillary lost in 2016 in the first place. Youth voters in particular are notorious for not turning out on election day, which is why the Democrats’ decision to cater to and make them a core constituency is a little baffling. They’re just as likely to decide to stay at home or in their dorms on election day as they are to walk over to the campus polling location. To be sure, college aged women will show up, but that has more to do with Dobbs and its consequences than with any other issue.

Which brings us to why Biden’s numbers suck and will continue to suck until September. Right now, its not a solid, dichotomous decision to vote for Biden or Trump. It’s a reflection of Biden’s approval rating, nothing more, nothing less. This summer, when the campaigns get into full swing and people start paying attention and realize one of these two people will be the President from 2025-2029, they’ll come home. In the home stretch from September to November, you should see the states at play solidify, the numbers probably improve some for Biden, harden and the likelihood of Biden winning or losing determined.

In the meantime, Biden should be moderating and trying to appeal to as many Haley voters as possible. She is still drawing 20-25% of the GOP primary vote, while not campaigning AND NOT APPEARING ON THE BALLOT! These are loud anti-Trump voters and in swing states they make up more than the margin of victory in 2020. From Blueprint:

Well, that and progressives getting off their asses and voting on Election Day might help.

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How important is voting and getting your voters to the polls on election day? Harry Enten dives into that one too:

PurpleAmerica’s Cultural Corner

So what groups are the most likely to stay home on election day? Pew Research has the numbers.

PurpleAmerica’s Obscure Facts of the Day

The last time the total voter turnout declined in a Presidential Election? That would be 2012. The reason is likely that 2008 was such a huge turnout election due to the first African American on the Presidential ticket, the war in Iraq and collapsing economic situation driving voter turnout to its highest ever to that point (it was surpassed in 2020). In 2012, the voter turnout regressed several points back towards the mean, with many of those issues waning, and a lackluster GOP candidate underperforming. With the largest voter turnout ever in 2020 (due to COVID, many states temporarily had mail-in voting, but many have since rolled that back now that there is no longer a pandemic), the turnout expected in 2024 is also anticipated to decline.

The lowest turnout in the modern era? That would be 1996. Bill Clinton was cruising during the dot-com bubble and an aging Bob Dole was seen as an also-ran. It wasn’t much of a contest.

PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject

Vote. Seriously VOTE IN EVERY ELECTION.

Either that, or quit whining when you don’t get your way.

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Footnotes and Fun Stuff

1. Just not in the same way white southern evangelicals are.

2. Suburbia is the real battleground. How Biden does there will determine whether he gets another four years or not. The numbers there are currently mixed; they tend to be a little more conservative generally, but the numbers for both Biden and Trump in suburban areas are dismal.