The Evil of Jumping to Conclusions

Initial Narratives After The Trump Assassination Attempt Were Flawed and Dangerous

The news came quickly on Saturday evening. While casually looking at my phone scrolling Threads, while sitting on my couch watching a movie with my son, the Reuters headlines said it all: Multiple shots were heard at a Donald Trump rally in Pennsylvania…Video appeared to show blood on Former President Trump’s ear.” I immediately turned on CNN (to the consternation of my 11 year old who wanted to finish the movie) and in 20 minutes had seen the clip a good five times. Trump seemed to react to the sounds of gun rounds firing, and then drop to the ground as Secret Service protection covers him. As he stands and moves to the motorcade, he defiantly raises a fist and yells “Fight!” to the crowd, who applaud his demeanor at this time.¹

At the time, that was all that was known but it did not stop people from jumping to conclusions.

Almost immediately we saw both the good and the bad of our current political climate.

• On the good side, most everyone, who acknowledged this is NOT what Americans want. Political violence is an unmitigated wrong in America and stands in the face of what liberal democracy stands for. Most Democrats and Republicans understood that from the get go. Harkening back to past events that included Gabby Giffords, Steve Scalise, Paul Pelosi the 1/6 Insurrection and a host of attempts that were stopped before getting anywhere (such as with Gretchen Whitmer) most everyone stated unequivicolly that such actions are un-American. I am happy to report most people, Democrat and Republican, fit into this group.

• Then there were the crazies on both sides. We’ll get to the Dems in a second, but the far right were unhinged. Here’s Republican Congressman Mike Collins:

• Here’s potential Vice Presidential nominee, J.D. Vance:

• And here is Senator Mike Lee, with a real off the wall thought:

• In the immediate aftermath of events, the shooter wrongly identified as Mark Violets, was described by right wing media outlets as a member of Antifa, and a photo that corresponded with much of this reporting purporting to show the shooter in front of his computer, but was in fact a picture of an Italian sports reporter.

• To be sure, hardcore Democrats fared no better. The level of conspiracy theories floating online were many; Washington Post documented many of them, referring to the far left conspiracies as “BlueAnon,” including but not limited to 1) that Biden made the decision to assassinate Trump in line with Sotomayor’s dissent in the Immunity matter, 2) that it was Trump’s “Reichstag fire moment” inferring this was where the country falls into Nazism, 3) a level of disdain implying Trump deserved it, seeing how he regularly trolled in violent rhetoric and hyperbolic right wing tropes, 4) that this was a “false flag operation” intended to give him the Presidency.

• Don’t even get me going about the level of whataboutism associated with this.

Most all of these positions are horrendous distortions based on political positions intended to either push an advantage for Republicans or to dismiss what happened by Democrats. Other than those people advocating that first position, which thankfully most people including most of our elected officials observed, I would strongly recommend many people spouting nonsense and hatred rethink their values in life. People were shot, including a fireman standing in the crowd, and to try and parlay that into a partisan talking point before facts are made displays an incredible amount of insensitivity.

Take the actual shooter for instance. I won’t use his name here, as there is no reason to. But people on the left and the right are saying he is emblematic of the other side:

• The right is saying that because he donated to ActBlue, a left wing fundraising page, that that demonstrates he was a fanatical, radical left winger. (there is now some question whether this person actually was the ActBlue donor, as it may have been someone else with the same name).

• The left is saying that because he was a registered Republican, and owned an AR-15, that he was a rabid gun nut and right wing enthusiast.

• The fact of the matter is that he was a 20 year old, who, according to people who knew him, never really stated a hard line political position either way.

Most people, including practically every swing voter in the country, saw the vitriol of the extremes and wanted no part in either. Indeed, after an hour of scrolling through hoping to find updated information on the shooting, I logged off Threads on account of how horrible some of the commentary was already being. If there is any good that will come out of this, I hope that it will result in a calming down of the rhetoric, will expose the extremes as not really emblematic of most Americans, and the virtues that make America already great will rise to the top and people will assess what is really important to our government and democracy.

PurpleAmerica’s Cultural Corner

I do want to carve out criticism on one issue that I DO think is warranted at this time; America’s continued fascination with guns and the ease with which they can be purchased. The shooter was a 20 year old, not yet able to purchase a beer, yet was able to get an AR-15, the gun of choice for mass shootings. This is horrendous and it was not long before anti-gun advocates pointed it out. No one spoke about this issue better than Parkland shooting survivor David Hogg.

And it went on. I hope America takes a moment to consider this event and do something about gun laws.

On another note, people are talking about how it may be a foregone conclusion that Trump will win the White House in November. Maybe, maybe not. While it is true that often events like this create a “Rally around” moment, it is not dispositive. I mean, there were two different attempts on Gerald Ford’s life² and he failed to get another term. To be sure, Trump has an opportunity to unite the country. He could go that route and I would suspect would benefit greatly from it. It would however require a level of humility and introspection that Trump has rarely shown. Being humble is just not his strong suit. If he goes the other direction, doubling down on the heated rhetoric, I’m not sure that helps him any more than it already has. In either case, there are still 3 1/2 months until the November election, which is plenty of time for things to change either way.

PurpleAmerica’s Obscure Facts of the Day

The last time something like this happened, when Reagan was shot in 1981, a comprehensive gun restrictions bill named for Reagan’s Press Secretary Jim Brady (who was shot in the head and had serious brain surgeries from it) passed both houses of Congress. The “Brady Bill” culmintated with passage a decade after Brady was shot.

PurpleAmerica’s Final Word

My thoughts and prayers are with former President Trump along with the victims from the shooting who were just bystanders at an event they wanted to witness. Political violence is never OK or acceptable. As a country, we need to move on from the violent rhetoric and move toward having discussions again.

Footnotes and Fun Stuff

1. The strength and conviction he showed in those first few moments were very Teddy Roosevelt-like. Roosevelt was shot once (in Milwaukee of all places, where the RNC convention is this week) and before going to the hospital finished the speech. It very much seemed like Trump wanted to continue and fire up the crowd but for the Secret Service requiring him to leave and get medical attention. Nobody knows how they would react in those situations; we now know how Trump would.

2. Including one by former Manson Family member Squeaky Fromme, which has to be one of the most surreal political stories ever.