The Quixotic Campaign of Dean Phillips
What was the Minnesota Democrat Thinking?
Dean Phillips was an up and coming Democrat. In 2018, he snagged a suburban Minnesota House seat that hadn’t been represented by a Democrat in 60 years. He had a great television presence and he was great on news interviews. Compared to Ilhan Omar, who’s district is next to his own, he was a calmer more mainstream presence and more in line with the general zeitgeist of the Democratic Party. Phillips was THE type of Democrat that specifically appealed to the suburban districts Democrats need to make inroads into if they want to win majorities in Congress and the Senate.
However, several month ago, Dean Phillips floated the idea of someone competing against Biden for the Democratic nomination. Like a lot of nervous Democrats (a notoriously anxious, pessimistic bunch), he was looking at the poll numbers, which showed a lot of Democratic discontent about Joe Biden’s lack of excitement, inspiration and that his age was problematic. It was not an issue with any of Biden’s policies, just largely Biden’s age. He also understood that uncontested primaries are actually rare, even in years when the question is never in doubt. A pacing horse is always a good idea to keep the main campaign sharp, gauge voter interest in various topics and areas of concern and iron out any issue problems within the party. Longshot campaigns never win, but they do offer some assistance and an earlier insertion of enthusiasm into an otherwise staid race.
The idea was largely poo-pooed from the start. Democrats don’t like the idea of anything that could weaken Biden when his numbers are in the toilet and his head to heads against Trump are dead heats within the margin of error. Biden’s age and physicality makes him look frail enough; he doesn’t need a longer campaign season to do more damage. There is just no energy on the Democratic side for ANY opposition to Biden. He already looks weak, despite the numerous policy victories and his quality job of handling the Presidency. By every standard, when it comes to politics, he often looks like the only adult in the room, but Father Time is ultimately undefeated.
Phillips walked away from his leadership role in the House Dem Caucus to pursue the unicorn, which was always a thinly veiled start to his own campaign for President. Early last week, Phillips announced his run for the Democratic Nomination. He is scoping his presidency around winning New Hampshire and getting momentum from that. This gets into technicalities, but Biden isn’t even on the ballot in New Hampshire. When the Democratic Party changed its schedule to put Nevada and South Carolina first,1 the Biden Campaign boycotted the scheduled Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary; what difference would it make, nobody else was running anyway, or so they thought. Phillips put in his ballot papers just before the New Hampshire Primary ballot filing window closed. Now, Biden’s team is scrambling to organize a write-in campaign in the state to compensate for its short-sightedness.2
But that is likely where the Dean Phillips campaign begins and ends. The next states, the ones that begin to actually count in the Democratic nominating process, are Nevada and South Carolina. Phillips has no chance of competing in Nevada and South Carolina is where Biden turned the corner in 2020 on his way to winning the nomination. Phillips’ issue arguments are completely congruent with Biden’s so there aren’t any policy differences to campaign on. If his campaign manager, Steve Schmidt3, is to be believed, they are going to campaign directly and hard at Biden which basically means mudslinging and negative politics. Seems the only campaign positions important to Phillips is Biden’s age and blind ambition.
The harder he tries to hit Biden, the more of a pariah within the Democratic Party he is going to become. Phillips has virtually zero chance of ever being the nominee for President. I say “virtually” because there is one, and only one, outside chance this gambit pays off for him. If in the interim between filing and New Hampshire Primaries Biden falls ill, perhaps gravely, it then becomes a contest between Phillips and V.P. Kamala Harris. In fact, as Phillips would be on the ballot in most states and Harris won’t (at least initially), he would have a leg up on accumulating delegates. But later primaries she would be able to get on and the eventual outcome is likley nobody gets a majority of delegates and we have a negotiated convention. I realize pundits always salivate at this possibility because it actually provides something exciting and noteworthy to the otherwise boring staged productions that are party conventions. However, there’s a reason they rarely ever happen—the odds are just way too small, and that’s what Phillips’ odds are of this occuring. Miniscule. There’s already talk about a primary in Phillips’ Minnesota Congressional District, meaning it seems to have backfired even in his home district.
So what is the purpose of this quixotic campaign? I honestly don’t know. There doesn’t appear to be any sense to it at all. It’s surprising to see such a likeable, up and coming political rising star, throw his political future away so cavalierly.
I expect about as much from this campaign as I did for Asa Hutchinson’s bid for the Republican nomination, which is to say practically nothing at all.
PurpleAmerica’s Recommended Stories
Politico has a great article titled “55 Things You Need to Know About Dean Phillips” which is a good primer on what he is all about.
Washington Post covered Phillips’ first New Hampshire Town Hall and it did not go well
The Hill kind of nails it on the head in this opinion piece which points at who Phillips’ campaign really benefits; Republicans.
PurpleAmerica’s Cultural Corner
On Friday, Phillips appeared on Real Time with Bill Maher and was…OK.
Phillips had one of the best campaign commercials of the last several cycles when he ran for his first race against Republican Erik Paulsen in 2018. This piece featuring Bigfoot called attention to the fact Erik Paulsen was seldom seen back in his own district. It really is a gem.
PurpleAmerica’s Obscure Fact of the Day
Phillips’ adoptive grandmother, Pauline Phillips, was the author of the famous “Dear Abby” advice column, which she wrote under the pseudonym “Abigail Van Buren” between 1956 and 2002.
PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject
Biden will be the Democratic Nominee. If he is unable to go, Kamala will be the nominee. That choice was made when Biden selected her in 2020. I get that people are unenthused about a Biden-Trump rematch, but believe it or not, it’s what the majorities of both parties actually want.
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Which was the dumbest thing Democrats have done in decades. I will die on that hill.
This is why a pacing horse in campaigns is important; remember when I said it keeps campaigns sharp? Case in point.
Schmidt is most known for being the guy who introduced Sarah Palin for the world by promoting her to John McCain to be chosen as a running mate, a choice he quickly regretted.