Third Parties Are Squeezing Democrats
Manchin Speaks at No Labels Event in NH and Dems Lose Their Minds
Third parties thrive in times when the two major parties offer up weak, uncharismatic, unpopular candidates. They usually cater to niche or fringe groups looking to pick off a large enough group of voters to get attention and some political influence. They are also often funded by those funding ideological opponents in order to weaken the major party whose vote totals from whom they want to lessen. Rarely is it a serious attempt to actually win the office.
And it can easily be said at this point that if everything continues unimpeded, both the major candidates (Joe Biden and Donald Trump), are unpopular and unsatisfying to a large part of the electorate. Donald Trump is a crybaby dictator wannabe with no feel for the office, no sense of public service, and whose management style borders on illegal and conspiratorial. From everything I can gather the complaint against Biden is just that he is old (and it shows) and has a tendency to veer into “foggy grampa” mode. That and progressives just don’t love him and wish they had someone more ideological than practical. Attempts by the left to make him look more in control (a.k.a. “Dark Brandon”) seem more like political in-jokes than any serious kind of zeitgeist building.
There is an assymmetry in these candidates as well. For Trump, he commands a loyal cult of personality. The inelasicity in his appeal is evident with how stagnant his numbers are even after evidence of criminality and indictments come out. Roughly speaking, he has probably a 40% floor of voters who will never leave him. However, he also doesn’t have much higher than that as a ceiling. Voters saw what a Trump Presidency was like and aren’t really itching for Trump 2.0. In fact, listening to people within the former Trump administration, they’re ringing alarm bells about how there would be no guardrails in a second Trump term.
Biden on the other hand was not most Democrats’ first choice for President. He was maybe a consensus second or third choice though, and when Rep. James Clyburn endorsed him before the South Carolina Primary in 2020, that was the tipping point for everyone to rally around Biden as a nominee. As President, Biden has worked to appeal to all aspects of the party instead of just select groups, and has tried to expand the base into a more moderate direction at the consternation of progressives. The end result is that 1) the most activist members of the party are unsatisfied and loud, 2) Biden’s support may be wide but it is thin in a lot of spots and 3) nobody is particularly eager and jumping up and down for 80+ year old Biden Redux. The approval ratings and the confidence many Democrats have in a Biden 2024 campaign underscores this as well.
Which is why Democrats particularly are frightened to death about third party movements at the moment. The margins for third parties in 2016 were big enough in a number of swing states to have flipped the Presidency to Trump. They are petrified of a rehash of that ignominious defeat. It would not take very many votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona (which is itself facing a three way Senate race) and Georgia to flip these Biden blue states red.
Feeling it From Both Sides
Normally, we see the third party emerge from a side that is neglected within the administration. In the current context, neither third party really is. Instead, what we’re seeing is a sense of weakness and an opportunity to pick at the fringes of the Biden coalition.
On the far left is Cornel West and the Greens Party. Cornel West has been a fixture in politics for a long time now. The Ivy League educated social critic and activist has been a strong proponent of reparations and socialist ideals for a long time. The Greens have been a left wing fringe party playing to the far left base of the electorate as well, and have been successful since 2000 when they nominated Ralph Nader for President,1 and in recent elections Jill Stein. However, the Greens lately have also been particularly prone to spreading Russian propaganda and issue positions. You may remember the picture of Michael Flynn and Vladimir Putin below that was implying Russian interference with Trump’s election. In the foreground is 2016 Greens Party Candidate, Jill Stein. It’s no wonder the Greens have been strong proponents of Russia versus the Ukrainians and advocating peace on Russia’s terms.
Cornel West is very much a hard, typical “left of progressive” candidate. Biden is not especially revered by this sector of the Democratic coalition as he is perceived often as watering bills down and selling out. However in practice, in order to push through any legislation, that is what is always done. Biden has offered them plenty of red meat that he can point to delivering for them and can make a serious argument only he can deliver more. If Biden toed the line on every policy proposal the far left wanted, not only would he not get anything accomplished in Congress, he’d get flattened in the next election. Most of those voters, deep down inside, understand that and when the time comes to pull the lever, would likely compromise their ideology and make the pragmatic call, again. You may see strong Greens showings in typical liberal states like Massachusetts or California, but you won’t see large contingents in Wisconsin or Michigan, even though the major party votes there could be close enough for them to play a factor.
The bigger threat to Biden comes from the middle. As mentioned, Trump has a ceiling and there is a huge contingent of voters in the middle (never Trumpers, disillusioned former GOP, conservative Democrats, etc.) that are up for grabs. Biden needs every one of these voters to win, particularly in the swing states that will ultimately determine the election. They’re not democrats and really disdain the far left (your AOCs, Pelosis and Schumers) but represent a portion of the electorate that is democratic coalition adjacent. They’re largely blue collar, largely midwestern, suburban or rural, economically liberal but culturally conservative. Think old school labor Democrats. This is why Biden lauded his working class background, his growing up in Scranton, and his long history with organized labor. They’re the ones who voted Biden in the swing states in 2020 and handed him the election. This is why Democrats are completely nervous about the No Labels Party, since it’s these same groups that No Labels are targeting.
How nervous? Just look at the impact a “moderate independent” inclusion does within these swing state polls. The bulk of the votes come from Biden and the Democrats, not Republicans. The unnamed moderate independent garners almost 20% of the overall vote or more in every one of them. More importantly, it represents an overwhelming proportion of the margin of victory.
Joe Manchin is up for re-election to the Senate in West Virginia this year. He’s a conservative Democrat in a state that has had the biggest swing to the right in the country. West Virginia gave Trump his highest margin of victory, nearly 40 points, in the country back in 2016. Manchin barely eked through a tough re-election in a blue wave year in 2018. He’s smart, practical and good at catering to the very people mentioned in the previous paragraph. He’s represented West Virginia about as good as any Democrat possibly could have over his past several terms, and the drop off between him and the Republican who will eventually represent this state in the Senate is very steep. For all this, he gets ridiculed as a wannabe Republican by his fellow Democrats who see him more as an obstacle to passing the ultimate liberal agenda. It makes every sense in the world for someone like Manchin to flirt with bolting the party.
Which is why Manchin being the Keynote Speaker at a “No Labels Party” sponsored event raises such huge alarm bells to Democrats. No Labels is being funded largely by big Republican donors hoping to split enough of the vote away from Democrats. One of its national co-chairs is Larry Hogan, former Republican Governor of Maryland.2 For a Senator up for re-election with no chance of winning, who can’t really succeed at taking the next step running for President in his own party, it seems like a reliably good opportunity to at least consider. If he runs, he would be a solid thorn in Biden’s side. It would have less of an impact on Trump who’s party loyalty is rock solid. A Manchin third party bid can most definitely peel enough away from those critical swing states to hand the election to Trump.
That may be the intent of “No Labels” all along.
My own gut tells me he won’t run, and if he does, he’ll fade once he starts taking heat from both the Democrats and the GOP. This is why it’s rare for Third Parties to emerge from the middle of the electorate. But stranger things have happened.3
PurpleAmerica Questions to Consider
Should Joe Biden consider dumping Kamala Harris as Vice President for a more moderate option? Perhaps Manchin?
For liberals, if Manchin does run and it gets close to election and Manchin leads Biden, would you consider pulling he lever for Manchin? Would you stick with Biden? Or would it be Cornel West?
Whether Manchin runs this year or not is still up in the air. However, I do see him running in the open year of 2028. What are his serious chances?
Should Manchin not run this year, it seems likely that Biden would still want to find a place for him in the Cabinet or as an agency head somewhere. What would he be good for?
Cornel West is an activist and more often than not, activists make bad candidates. Do you think he will ever poll better than 5%? Do you think he makes it to election day?
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Footnotes and Fun Stuff
Ralph Nader’s campaign is notable as it very likely gave the Presidency to George W. Bush. Most all of the votes in Florida that went to Nader very likely would have gone to Al Gore had Nader not been in the race, and with a margin of only 587 votes, Nader’s vote total far surpassed the amount needed for Gore to win. A more interesting thing in that election is that ANOTHER third party bid also played an impact. Due to the confusing “Butterfly ballot” in one very liberal county, a lot of votes that would have went for Gore went to far right candidate Pat Buchanan. Buchanan by his own admission said they would most likely were confused Gore voters, and they exceeded the Bush Margin of Victory in the state.
By the way, Hogan at one time had the highest appoval rate in the country as a Republican governing over a more liberal state. It was often back and forth between him and Charlie Baker, Massachusetts Governor in basically the same position.
Like a reality television host, serial philanderer and former bankrupt casino owner getting elected to the White House.
They're really going to do this, aren't they?