When the Levee Breaks...

Trump Repulses Independents; If It Looks Like He'll Lose, When Will the GOP Turn on Him?

Yesterday was the New Hampshire Primary. For practical purposes, it was a speed bump on the Trump train towards the GOP nomination. Nikki Haley, making a go of it, remained competitive; but the results in N.H. are an afterthought. She is going to get walloped in her home state of South Carolina and that will be the end of it. The party will coalesce around Trump as the nominee.

Which means we’ll enter the two person race phase towards the White House. Funny things happen at this point. You usually see a polling bump from BOTH nominees as the party solidifies behind them. However, up until now, the idea of the general election remains an abstract thought; now it comes into complete focus. People look at the two options and make decisions. There have been luddites and footdraggers before; think the PUMAs (e.g., “Party Unity My Ass,” who felt Obama screwed Hillary out of the nomination), but they eventually came around. They ALWAYS come around. The alternative, letting the other side win, is just not acceptable to them. And this year more than any other time in American history, thinking you can fix things again four years from now is an open question; should Trump win, there may not even BE a fair election in four years.

Which means after this week, all that will be left to fight over are the moderate, independent voters; those equivocating fence sitters that genuinely look at issues and trends and go with who they think will do the better job. Interesting thing about them this year though— they HATE Trump. Even moderate REPUBLICAN voters hate Trump. Roughly HALF of Nikki Haley voters in Iowa said they would not vote for Trump EVER. Politico has a piece out pointing out Trump’s Independent voter problem that you should read here:

Add to that the fact that nationally, Biden has a 50-38% edge in independents (Biden’s low overall approval numbers are a result of his low standing among Democratic base voters) and you start to see an outline of how Biden not only can win in November, but possibly have a landslide. He only needs 1 or 2% more of these voters than he had in 2020 to ensure victory, and is currently getting much more than that. The only people Trump appeals to are GOP base voters, that leaves about 65% of American voters on the table. And the swing states Trump needs to win? Forget about those— Independent voters in each of those states determines the winner usually, and Trump is outright toxic to them.

Meaning Trump would have lost the GOP elections in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. “Trumpism” if there is a policy agenda that encompasses that, is a no-win proposition. The future of the GOP does not lie in that direction, despite how hardcore Trump’s MAGA voters are. Which begs the question— when will GOP leaders realize that, acknowledge that and start abandoning Trump? What happens if it begins before the election in November?

Sure right now it’s about falling in line and kissing the ring, but come August if Biden is winning 55% of the vote and what appears to be 350 Electoral Votes, at what point do smart Republican pols start distancing themselves? The only other time I remember anything like this was in 1984, and nobody was begging to have their picture taken with Walter Mondale past Labor Day, except in the most die-hard of Democratic strongholds. If there is one inevitable truth, it’s that rats abandon a sinking ship faster than the crew usually does.

And as the stench of “loser” sticks to Trump earlier, if you are a Ron DeSantis or a Nikki Haley, or a Chris Christie or any other number of Republicans who were never 100% on the Trump train, at what point do you start saying “I told you so!” and peel away? If you’re a Haley, who likely will run and be the front runner in 2028, how do you calculate the costs of remaining on a sinking ship vrs. getting some distance and looking cleaner? GOP party insiders with the stench of Richard Nixon on them weren’t looked to in 1980; it was the ones who tried to stay away from that who helped the GOP turn the corner during the Reagan years.

The other question is in what direction they go. After the 2012 shellacking by Obama, in what was a very winnable race for Romney, the GOP put together a typical consultant driven“autopsy” report describing what went wrong and what the GOP needs to do better. None of it’s suggestions were adopted by the eventual winner of the next Presidential cycle, Donald Trump, in 2016. In fact, the candidates that did adhere closest to that line failed the most miserably. Instead, the GOP doubled down on the crazy. It was like an ocean of kerosene dumped on a fire that carried them through the election; but the fire that burns twice as bright burns half as long, and by 2018 people did not like where the GOP had taken them. My hunch is that come 2028, the GOP will moderate some more, inching back however little towards sanity again. Nonetheless, it would have been eight out of the previous nine Presidential elections that Republicans would have lost the popular vote. The more the cranks in the GOP control their party and their leader, the narrower the path to the White House. It’s entirely conceivable they select another crank who repulses most moderates and independents again, digging that hole even further.

In any event, the GOP looking for the exits to the Trump Show is going to happen at some point, the only questions are when and what does it look like? Based on these Independent voter numbers nationally and in the GOP primary states already, it may happen sooner than you think.

PurpleAmerica’s Recommended Stories

Definitely read that Politico article.

Yesterday, the tiny town of Dixville Notch, N.H. was the first place in America to vote for President in the primaries (remember, Iowa is a Caucus system). What was the result? Nikki Haley swept the vote with all 6 voters selecting her. How often does Dixville Notch represent the results of the state and the country? Phillip Bump of the Washington Post has the answer.

A.B. Stoddard agrees; Biden’s low approval ratings won’t matter. Democratic and Independent voters aren’t following the herd.

PurpleAmerica’s Obscure Fact of the Day

You may remember this famous speech by Barack Obama in 2008.

What most people forget is that he gave it at Nashua, N.H. after having LOST the NH primary to Hillary Clinton. Obama had surprised Clinton by winning the Iowa Caucus. He had actually been polling better in New Hampshire prior to that. Winning NH was supposed to be a certainty at that point.

But in the interim week between Iowa and NH, Hillary became more honest, more personable and relatable to N.H. voters. She came back to win N.H. and it became a race that would go through every state of the country.¹

Obama’s speech though took on a life of it’s own, particularly after Will.I.Am took the text and made a song/video of it.

PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject

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Footnotes and Fun Stuff

1. An interesting footnote to that is that it DIDNT go through Michigan and Florida. Those two states had broken party rules and moved their primaries before Super Tuesday, nullifying their delegates. Hillary won both of those states (Obama never contested them). So when the delegates were counted, had Michigan and Florida’s full delegate counts been included, Hillary would have won. At a meeting to resolve the dispute between the campaigns before the Convention, MI and FL had half of their delegates counted, which wasn’t enough for Hillary. This started the PUMA groups supporting HIllary through the General Election.