Where Dems Need to Do Better
They Can't Be Intimidated of Rural America Because of Culture Issues
In the 2022 Congressional Midterms, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee pulled funding for a swing district candidate to better fund poorly performing Dem candidates in New York (including for the seat that ultimately went to George Santos). On the surface, this district had a lot of things going for it that should have given Dems more reason to support the candiate:
Despite its “swing district in a swing state” status, it had been represented by a Democrat for the past 26 years in Congress;
The district contains six(!) state colleges within it and some additional liberal arts schools that vote Democratic;
There were both a Senate and a Governors race in the state that year, and for either/both of those candidates to win, they would need to turn out Democratic voters in the area;
The Dem candidate had a high name identification in the district, as he was well known up and down the district for spending his entire career focused on the issues this district finds important;
The Supreme Court Dobbs decision had come out months prior to the election and had fueled widespread youth and women’s turnout.
The Republican running was a MAGA supporter who had actually been at the Capitol Insurrection on January 6th, 2021.
Polls showed a neck and neck race right up until October.
With all of these things in their favor, why did Democrats give up on it?
Because the district is primarily a rural one.
The district was Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional district. The D candidate, Brad Pfaff, ended up losing to Republican Derrick Van Orden by a mere 12k votes, 51-48%. Dems pulled out funding to shore up terrible candidates in NY (with its expensive media markets) who should have never been in trouble to begin with, ceding the district to the Republicans.
So to demonstrate, here is the district:
Here’s how it went in the recent State Supreme Court Primary race.
You see that brick of blue in Western Wisconsin along the Mississippi? Yeah, that’s the Wisconsin Third Congressional District Dems gave up on.
Democrats’ reflexive mentality to focus solely on urban and suburban districts and discard rural America is the reason why we have a 50/50 country when it should be a complete blow out for Biden right now. Choosing to focus more on social and cultural issues instead of the economic ones hitting main street is the primary driver for why Democrats have a hard time winning rural areas. Biden gets this, which is why he doesn’t dive into those waters too often, and chooses instead to highlight issues impacting economic concerns. Not too many other Democrats do though.
Just look at the Biden record that he can brag about for rural American voters. A huge infrastructure bill that improves rural roads and bridges. A rural communications bill that expands and improves broadband and high speed internet access for rural areas. Securing and expanding Obamacare that impacts self employed individuals, including farmers. Substantially decreasing inflation and unemployment coming out of the COVID shutdowns, of which he also had a hand in alleviating the impacts. Better Democratic messaging would have people realize this is Morning in America again, but instead we’re stuck with pundits myopically focused on LGBTQIA+ Trans issue fights, race and gender gaps and poorly worded immigration policy.
Why is this so important? Because to get a governing majority you have to expand the map and play in all areas across the country. You can’t just rack up higher voting margins in NY and California; you have to get a majority of voters across a majority of districts. Democrats have been instead withdrawing, willfully ceding areas that are culturally more conservative to a more rabid and deranged Republican Party. They’ve given up on Florida, Ohio and Iowa and are starting to get worried about Nevada. They’re hopeful they can get Georgia and Arizona consistently Democrat, but those voted blue last time for very different reasons, neither of which I would classify as “consistent.” If Dems would focus on messaging that appeals to a more rural base, promoting the economic benefits of voting democrat the way they did when they were the party of farmers and organized labor, they’d win in those areas, particularly if they had local candidates who spoke the language and knew local concerns instead of Ivy League transplants carpetbagging (another thing Dems love to do way too much). All politics is local.1 The votes are there if they try. Instead,, they choose to spout red herring nonsense about eliminating the filibuster, scrapping the Electoral College or advocting for a National Popular Vote which is not going to go anywhere.
What sparked this post today was the announcement by the person who came in second in the 2022 Democratic primary of that Wisconsin district, Rebecca Cooke2, announcing she is running again for the seat. She says exactly the kind of things you need to say to win this district, focuses on exactly the kind of issues that you should to win this district and is a young, charismatic presence that is an ideal canidate to win this district. I just hope the Democrats support her better than they did Brad Pfaff.
https://twitter.com/RebeccaforWI/status/1678389571808051207?s=20
They already seem to be paying attention following the debacle in 2022 and the Wisconsin Supreme Court Election earlier this year.
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In 2002, Thomas Frank had a book published that completely described this dynamic perfectly. “What’s the Matter with Kansas” is not just a jovial rhetorical question anymore in politics, its become a mantra for why Democrats can’t seem to convince people in the middle of the country of their economic self interest.
PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject
Let’s give it to Joe Scarborough
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Footnotes and Fun Stuff
Famous quote by former Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill. It is more truthful than almost every other adage I have heard about American politics.
You can find her campaign website here: https://cookeforwisconsin.com/