6% of Six Swing States
That is What Both Parties Are Targeting to Get Over 270 Electoral Votes
Axios had an interesting piece on Monday where top strategists in both parties confirmed they are targeting roughly 6% of voters in each of six swing states. The states are Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Occassionally, North Carolina gets thrown in as well since its demographics conforms slightly with the Democratic coalition, their targeted voters and has been a little swingy in the past, although it is currently rated by Cook Political Report as a “Lean R” instead of toss-up.
These are very much the swing states that were in play in 2020 as well, with Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania being part of the famed Democrat “Rust Belt/Blue Wall,” Arizona and Nevada with their larger latino voting populations and Georgia with a large colllege graduate and engaged African-American electorate. Biden’s winning margin in those states in 2020 amounted to a mere 300,000 out of 158 million votes cast, and Trump would have won the 2020 election just by flipping 81,000 votes in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Georgia.
Now, I realize that it’s a little irresponsible and not quite correct to frame the discussion that way; every vote counts and just because Ohio is not included in that list, if a bunch of Trump voters don’t show up in Ohio, suddenly that is in play too. Or Biden voters in Maine. To win the state, every vote in every corner of the state contributes. For instance, people look at the metropolitan areas of states and assume those are solidly Dem areas, which they are. What they often fail to take into account though is that the majority of Republican votes in states still come from these areas too, and what makes the rural votes receive more attention is how the collective margins within those rural areas make up the difference in margin of the urban vote. That’s why these states in particular are so swingy— in all of them the rural and suburban vote margins CAN overcome the urban vote if it’s close enough.
How close? Well, the axios article confirms both sides at focusing on 6% of the vote in each state. That’s it, that’s the margin.
I don’t know about you, but I know more than enough people who don’t make up their minds until they get in the booth, probably more than 6%. Think about that a moment. Those fence-sitters and wafflers in only 6 (maybe 7) states are who are going to be deciding the next President of the United States.
How close are those margins? If Trump wins Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, all states he is currently leading in, under the current Nebraska standard of distributing that state’s Electoral Votes, Trump loses by 1, 270 to 268 Electoral Votes. You can see now why there is a push in the Nebraska legislature among Republicans to change it to a “winner take all” system like in most other states.1
How problematic is that for Biden? Well, he’s currently behind in Pennsylvania, though it remains a dead heat in the Margin of Error, and the Gaza/Israeli war could single handedly cost him enough Democratic votes in Michigan to lose that one, as I noted here. Biden and the Democrats seem to be banking on the reproductive rights issue post-Dobbs, which is a wise strategy; there has been a groundswell post-Dobbs in swing districts, referendums and special elections that have decidedly swung toward Democrats, with the margins exceeding the polling and the energy on their side as well. Nonetheless, Dems being Dems, relying solely on that especially with the race so close rounding the 3/4 pole heading into the backstretch has many within the party nervous.
And this is what I find particularly frustrating with “Democratic Strategists.” Their targets seem to be focused only on those that will get that small vote to get them over the finish line. Call it the “Gore-W 2000 Strategy.” They fail to see how that barely helps push for a larger governing coalition and turns would should be a rout into a horse race. They should set their sights higher and broader than just this. They don’t reach out to manufacturing and non-college graduates (which vastly outnumber college graduates) nearly enough. Opening up the tent to appeal to more voters would go a long way toward securing a governing majority in 2024 and the future.
At least then we wouldn’t have to hear every election cycle how close everything always is.
PurpleAmerica’s Recommended Stories
Fellow Oshkosh native and founder of Axios and Politico, Jim VandeHei is out with his new book, “Just the Good Stuff,” where he offers his advice on life, business, and career based on his experiences. It’s a great, quick read, in the famous TL;DR format pioneered at Axios where stories get right to the point of why they are important.
Definitely worth your time.
PurpleAmerica’s Obscure Fact of the Day
Getting back to that number that if enough Biden voters change their vote to Trump in the right states, that Trump would have won the election; 81,000. You know how small that is?
There are currently 19 stadiums in the United States that can hold that many people.
PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject
This post has had a couple of maps which underscore the divisiveness in our politics. I still prefer this one. We’re closer than our politics suggests.
—PurpleAmerica
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Footnotes and Fun Stuff
Maine is the only other state the breaks up Electoral Votes by Congressional District and state winner.