Handicapping the DC Derby- GOP Stakes Race

It's Way Early, and I Hate This Kind of Prognostication, But...

Frankly, I hate these kind of pieces. It’s one of Washington’s worst parlor games, using the conventional wisdom to guess months before the first ballots are cast who’s going to win what before it even begins. It’s the kind of thing Chris Cillizza has made a career of—just making a big deal about every minutiae and going “What if…?” like some gossipmonger at a tabloid or high school locker room.

Too much emphasis is also put on where the polls are right now as if they’ll never change,¹ how much money they can raise,² and focus on the nuances of “the message.”³ In truth, that matters a little but in reality its a question of who can catch fire with voters in early states and present that aura of success, particularly after the first votes are counted in Iowa.

Let’s be honest, it certainly won’t hurt my engagement count to wade into these waters once in awhile. This kind of exercise can be insightful at times. Not to mention, there’s nothing like spiking the football when you go against the conventional wisdom and are right. It can make people take notice too, look at Nate Silver for instance. And I’ll be honest, it is a little fun throwing this out there and seeing who agrees and disagrees with the takes and why; some of it is wishful thinking, some of it are campaigns trying to play the refs and other times its just trolls who are dumb jerks trying to pump up or dump on a candidate. It gets people talking.

Since it tends to be characterized as a “horse race” (even though that is not the best analogy) we’ll provide our handicapping in the manner of one. Feel free to offer your thoughts in the comments and we may incorporate them into updates to the horse race in future posts.

So without further ado, Let’s handicap the DC Derby, GOP stakes race.

The Field

Well folks, we currently have a field of 12 horses in the paddock rearing to go, with potentially more accepting the invitations (or even crashing) before the field closes. Weather is currently nice and the track at this point is pretty dry and fast. I do want to point out though that things are likely to get gloomy closer to the post time and will be very muddy going into the first turn and through the rest of the race. We’ll group the field in various tiers along with odds.

Likely to Scratch

Perry Johnson, Doug Burgum, Ryan Binkley

Binkley is a Dallas-area businessman and non-denominational pastor, concentrating his early efforts in Iowa. Burgum is a two term Governor of North Dakota with a reputation for nuanced policy. Johnson failed to qualify for the ballot last time he ran, for Governor of Michigan. What these three have in common is putting their eggs in one basket (Iowa) and hoping for the best. All three lack personal appeal, the likelihood of getting on the ballot and a broader base in the GOP party than the others in the field. Any of them will be lucky to get into any of the debates and frankly, at least two of the three will likely be gone by Labor Day. I don’t anticipate any of them making it to the Iowa Caucuses next January. No odds: anticipated scratch

The Favorite

Donald Trump

He won the Derby in 2016 among a field of stable ponies, then won it again in 2020 by default when he leaned on GOP Track officials not to open the race up to anyone else. He then went on to lose the White House Sweepstakes to the aging battlehorse Joe Biden. He has always contested that finish and despite all the evidence pointing that he lost by a good length, has played to those in the grandstand who bet on him to win.

This time around he’s not likely to have as friendly a field as he did in 2016. The competitors will try and box out and jockey for position. The only question is do they try to jockey themselves against each other or against the favorite?

Trump is also an agile mudder, and this track is likely to look ugly come racetime. There aren’t too many in the field capable of hanging with this horse in the mud, so he should have a huge advantage in this race. He’s going to look to go wire to wire, but if a horse or two can make it competitive after the first turn, we may have a close race down the backstretch and possibly the home stretch. Part of Trump’s appeal is an aura of invincibility; if the other horses aren’t intimidated and can keep pace we may have an interesting race on our hands.

He has had some issues with the commission however, and the possibility of a disqualification is not out of the question.

Odds: Even Money, for now. If his issues with the commission continue, may drop odds and possibly DQ.

The “Just Being in the Field is the Prize” Tier

Vivek Ramaswany, Larry Elder, Asa Hutchinson

Ramaswany is playing the Andrew Yang role in this race, throwing out random ideas, making repeated snarky comments that demonstrate a lack of policy knowledge and trying to appeal to the online/Silicon Valley set hoping to get some traction. He’ll get some fame out of it and will likely be a pundit after the elections, but he isn’t running a serious campaign.

Larry Elder is a radio host hoping to garner attention and listenership through his campaign. In that sense, its the same kind of race as Ramaswany’s but with a more antiquated media and an older jockey, with a better grasp of the issues. Elder tends to be calmer and deliberate though so he may help keep the field under control so long as he is still in it.

Asa Hutchinson is an old horse with few racing opportunities left in him. He’s had a nice long career but it’s time for the horse to be put to pasture. Still, we’ll get the opportunity to see if he can manage a nice start out of the gate, maybe make a respectable go at it.

Odds on all three: 99:1

The Stable Ponies/ Pacing Horses

Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley

Sometimes this tier can be called the “weather vane” candidates because they’ll be the ones following the herd with their fingers in the air trying to gauge which way the wind blows. They’ll set the pace and stick around for a bit, but few expect them to make a run in the stretch. I’m reluctant to say the race will be personified by them collectively, but in truth, that’s more likely to come from Trump and how bad and ugly the weather gets.

These are the candidates you would anticipate to do better on a fast track than in the mud. They’ll talk positively, they’ll say all the right things, do all the right things, they’ll even look like seasoned, competitive thoroughbreds. They just lack the killer intinct to be competitive. They’ll look to hang around with the field hoping to make a move out of the first turn and in the back stretch, but they’ll likely be way out of the race by the time it reaches the final turn; they just don’t have the legs to make it there.

Pence has certainly been a seasoned winner in smaller races but whenever he has tried to play up to this level has thoroughly been an also ran. He has the look, but not the stamina nor speed out of the gate. He lost the support of the grandstand too following the last time he ran with Trump in a race, and stated plainly what was in the photo evidencing the finish; Trump was clearly the loser.

Scott is an interesting one. Young and small, he has a vibrance with him that demonstrates a future. He’s won the South Carolina Senate Stakes Race consistently and this is his first race at this level. The size of the track is much bigger than he is used to and the quality of competition is much better. We’ll see if he is up to the task but history says no. He should have a better race in him further in the future.

Haley is a dependable mare who has won races in Scott’s neighborhood pretty consistently and is well liked at this level of race. She has some appeal and on the fast track would have much better odds. We’ve never seen what she can do in the mud and if she can keep calm and weather it, has a chance; her first foray in the rain at a CNN Town Hall wasn’t too promising. I don’t see too many betting on her yet, but if she can stay positive, look springy when she takes to the track and handle the other bigger horses, her odds may improve, particularly if she charts the course to the outside away from the other horses where there is likely to be more mud flying. Good enough to fight for show, possibly place.

Odds: Pence: 50:1, Scott 30:1, Haley 20:1

The Mudders

Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie

I use “mudders” loosely here because DeSantis has been trying to run in the mud now for awhile and frankly often looks like he’s flailing. He had great odds early but has since completely collapsed after some poor outings earlier this year. He just doesn’t have a feel for the conditions or the size of the race yet. He looked like a stallion on paper and on T.V. but when you look at the splits in the racing guide and see this horse up close, you wonder whether he looks like an old nag that should be put down. It doesn’t mean he won’t step up, only that it looks more and more like that window is closing just as others are getting into the race. He has more of a feel every day of one that’ll fade, not quite ready for prime time.

Which brings us to Chris Christie. Christie is the only one in the field who can play in the mud and go toe to toe with the favorite. I’m quite looking forward to watching these two go at it. I actually think Christie can force Trump into some spots he really doesn’t want to be in this race and punish him. The only question is will Christie be the one to capitalize or will it just open the door for another horse? As far as Dark Horse candidates go, you could do a lot worse than Christie, but he’s not really in it to win, he’s in it just to beat Trump. In that sense, he has the capacity to upend the whole field. The better he does, the better everyone’s odds increase and more competitive a race we’ll have.

DeSantis: was 5:1, now 10:1. Christie, 10:1 and rising.

Exacta Pick: Trump- Christie- Haley

PurpleAmerica’s Cultural Corner & Final Word on the Subject

Pro Wrestling Icon and former Champion The Iron Sheik (real name Hossein Khosrow Ali Vaziri) died on Wednesday at the age of 81. For wrestling fans, he was the best heel the sport had ever known. At a time when US-Iran relations were at an all time low, he proudly waved the Iranian flag. During the hottest tensions of the Cold War, he teamed up with Russian Nikolai Volkoff and became Tag Team Champions. He would lose the WWF championship belt to an up and comer you may know as Hulk Hogan.

But it was all show. The man was a great guy who loved America. Those who knew him personally loved him. Just watch an episode of Dwayne Johnson’s show “Young Rock” where his character appears and you can get a good sense of how much he was adored by everyone who knew him, including “The Rock.”

On Twitter, he was a riot, mixing good advice with ridicule and offensiveness with a little smirk. Few were ever better at trolling and being as likeable as the Sheik. R.I.P. His Pinned Tweet, which totally personifies the man to a T, is below.

Like what you are seeing here at PurpleAmerica? Share and Comment. Let your friends and family know! Forward us topics you’d like us to discuss! It’s am open community here.

1. By it’s nature, polling is retrospective— it looks at what has already happened and then assumes that’s right and everything stays where it is. It offers zero insight into where things are going, so “he’s down in the polls” this far out is a stupid thing to say.

2. Another horrible indicator. It doesn’t incorporate how much is being SPENT. Look at Scott Walker, who was raising ungodly sums of money in the summer before the 2016 race got off the ground, talking about how cheap he was, when he ran out of money by Labor Day 2015.

3. Nobody cares how particular things are phrased, even though the media make a big deal about those things. What matters is the general policy position, and in that, most of the candidates usually are in the same place.