It would be better if not for the strong possibility he'll DQ and end up not able to run. But yeah, I would suspect the longer he stays in, the more that line moves in his favor.
Well, 50% would be close to even money. I do think that the only reason it isn't higher is because of all the legal uncertainty around him. Its just a question of whether his supporters can stick with him or whether they go shopping if it looks like he can't run. That kind of variable is a big one for the whole race and handicappers would hedge their bets until it became more definitive.
I want to get my prediction in while it's still early:
Trump ends up flailing. People are growing tired of his petty antics and can't believe he is putting his own interests ahead of the team (who would have seen that coming?!)
Desantis takes lead down the backstretch and Trump continues to spiral while claiming fraud at every loss. When he finally loses he focuses all of his energy at taking down Desantis in the general election and Desantis loses to Biden by a large margin.
10:1 for DeSantis feels too optimistic. The man has the personality of a 3 week old dog turd on your lawn, and outside the MAGA base, people want someone personable.
Plus the MAGA base is fine, just fine, with Trump.
Yeah, I'd say he starts there but is dropping like a rock as people see him. He does have one huge advantage though, and that's if Trump gets indicted or CAN'T run, DeSantis is currently still in best position to capitalize at the moment.
I fully agree with that. Most of the others in the paddock are tainted "pre-Trump" Republicans who have the stench of "establishment" on them, or are so obscure that they will likely never meet the RNC's debate requirements.
Very good interesting article, but I would be hammering that Trump line at even money.
It would be better if not for the strong possibility he'll DQ and end up not able to run. But yeah, I would suspect the longer he stays in, the more that line moves in his favor.
I just checked PredictIT and they have him close to 50% although I'm not sure how accurate these markets are after the CFTC letter:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination
Well, 50% would be close to even money. I do think that the only reason it isn't higher is because of all the legal uncertainty around him. Its just a question of whether his supporters can stick with him or whether they go shopping if it looks like he can't run. That kind of variable is a big one for the whole race and handicappers would hedge their bets until it became more definitive.
I want to get my prediction in while it's still early:
Trump ends up flailing. People are growing tired of his petty antics and can't believe he is putting his own interests ahead of the team (who would have seen that coming?!)
Desantis takes lead down the backstretch and Trump continues to spiral while claiming fraud at every loss. When he finally loses he focuses all of his energy at taking down Desantis in the general election and Desantis loses to Biden by a large margin.
Cracking great analysis.
10:1 for DeSantis feels too optimistic. The man has the personality of a 3 week old dog turd on your lawn, and outside the MAGA base, people want someone personable.
Plus the MAGA base is fine, just fine, with Trump.
Yeah, I'd say he starts there but is dropping like a rock as people see him. He does have one huge advantage though, and that's if Trump gets indicted or CAN'T run, DeSantis is currently still in best position to capitalize at the moment.
I fully agree with that. Most of the others in the paddock are tainted "pre-Trump" Republicans who have the stench of "establishment" on them, or are so obscure that they will likely never meet the RNC's debate requirements.