It's Time...Sorry Joe

Biden was the Best Choice to Unite the Party Against Trump; He No Longer Is.

When I worked in DC, I had the opportunity to meet Wisconsin Former Senator William Proxmire. Proxmire is a legend in Wisconsin politics and a hero to me; he’s the one who inspired my love of politics when I was young. But age caught up with him and he retired. A few years later he announced that he was one of the millions of Americans afflicted with Alzheimers. The Congressman I worked for was a former intern for him, and asked if anyone in Wisconsin wanted to send him a card, we would deliver them to him. About a week later, I got the opportunity to walk them over with someone who knew him well, to the Library of Congress Senate Reading Room, where he liked to spend his days.

Upon entering the room, I walked over to him, and told him who I was, and how he was a hero to me, and why I was there. He slowly arose from his chair, his mood brightened, he gave a huge smile, and grasped my hand to shake it. He had all the moves and quick jokes of an old politician down still, seemed sharp as a tack and even though I recognized this all as political habits, he still made me feel warm and appreciated, like a good politician does. He told me how he loved my hometown and wish he were back in Wisconsin now having a good bratwurst. Then he went to the person I was with, someone he knew well, and a look of confusion came over him; he knew he SHOULD know this person, but was lost and couldn’t think of it. He extended his hand to him and sort of talked around the pleasantries he offered me. It was a harsh lesson for me in the travails of old age (Alzheimers particularly) and how we slow down and aren’t quite what we used to be.

Watching Joe Biden last Thursday night at the debate made me think about those moments with Proxmire a lot. From the moment he shuffled to his podium, he looked like he could barely walk by himself and that he needed a cane. Biden had that lost look in his eyes most of the night. He was slow to respond. He seemed like he was overprepared by staff for details most Americans don’t care about. He had that soft voice, sounding weak and frail. On the split screen with Trump, he looked absolutely out of sorts like a deer in headlights. Trump regurgitated falsehood after falsehood with confidence and conviction, and despite it being absolultely lies, he sounded good doing it. Biden was an 81 year old man standing in the path of a firehose of falsity and could do nothing to stop it.

Sure, he could deliver the same politician’s speak he always had. But it was never convincing nor strong. He was RIGHT on every policy, but when you speak in a whisper, you sound half sure of yourself. Biden will never say anything with real strength again; that’s what happens when you are over 80 years old. A candidate who can’t deliver the argument, no matter what argument it is, is no longer the best candidate for election, and is not the best person for the job.

This hurts. I love Joe. He’s dedictated his life to public service and has been one of the best and most consequential presidents of the past 75 years. He saved us from a Trump 2nd Term. That alone deserves Americans’ respect and appreciation. I supported him in 2015, when his campaign was sputtering and looked to be going nowhere, when it looked like Elizabeth Warren or Pete Buttigieg would be the nominee. But at some point, no matter the job we do, we’re all told sometime that our time has come to an end. For Joe Biden, that time is now. It pains me to say it.

And I’m not the only one. Polling suggests most of America wants someone, ANYONE other than the two people running right now. The party that listens and supports an alternative will likely be the one to reap the rewards. The entire Democratic pitch at the moment is “Not Trump”; their only unifying argument is that Trump must be stopped as he is a danger to America and the world. Any Democrat can make that argument, and most can make it better than Biden.

However, the Democratic Party seems intent on having a Weekend at Bernie's candidate they prop up.

Normally, the next person in line would be Kamala Harris. That alone comes with problems. First off, the VP job makes everyone who ever has the job look bad. It’s actually rare for a VP to directly succeed the President they worked for¹ (the last one being George H.W. Bush in 1988, and before that you have to go all the way back to Martin Van Buren in 1837²). It’s one of the reasons her numbers are worse than Joe’s and is something I touched on here and here. But Kamala has other issues too; in order to win, Dems need to keep states that she has absolutely zero appeal in, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those are the same three states Trump won to put him over the top against Hillary Clinton in 2016. She could feasibly expand the map to North Carolina or Georgia, but those are stretches this time around. Lastly, if Biden chooses not to run, other candidates would want to take the opportunity as well— it won’t be an easy coronation. The only way she becomes next in line is if Biden names her as the nominee, since he controls all the delegates on the first ballot. There will be a lot of pressure on him from party leaders for him to open up the process.

Which brings us to contingency #2, the open convention. Politicos and press have drooled over the idea of an open convention and the backroom dealing that used to occur at conventions ever since 1968 when the last one really took place, coincidentally. the convention was in Chicago that year as well. If the candidate is picked by party brokers and a consensus candidate emerges from the backrooms, Democrats may have a chance to salvage the campaign. If it spills out onto the floor and a lot of bad blood between groups and candidates emerge, it could be a disaster. Gavin Newsome, Amy Klobuchar, Gretchen Whitmer, and others will all vie for an opportunity to be on the ticket. All have more upside than Kamala, but none of those except Harris and Klobuchar have run a national campaign before either.

In the end, what Democrats really need is someone who can punch back at Trump. They’re largely unified on the issues and know what they have to do and where they have to appeal to voters. That Biden is no longer the person capable of delivering that is sad, but its the right decision to make, and deep down inside I think he is realizing it as well. They have the biggest unifier to their cause as the head of the Republican Party in Trump, and a new candidate will be a huge stimulant to an otherwise lackluster campaign season so far. Here’s hoping the Democrats take that step.

PurpleAmerica’s Obscure Fact of the Day

The last candidate chosen by convention? You may be surprised to learn that it was actually Barack Obama.

“But wait,” you may say, “Obama won the most delegates during the primaries.” That’s only partially true. Michigan (128 delegates) and Florida (185 delegates) moved their primary dates before Super Tuesday which was against party rules. As a result, their delegates were not counted during the primaries and Obama resulted with more primary delegates because of it.³ Had their full delegate counts been included to the count, Hillary would have won (or made it extremely close), it was that close. Which brings us to what are called “Super Delegates,” which are elected party officials, fundraisers and internal party people who have a vote. Early in the campaign, Hillary was collecting most of these, but after Obama won Iowa and fought to a draw on Super Tuesday, many started going toward him and he collected enough to put him over the top, though the margin was still very close. The SuperDelegate margin was ultimately larger than the total primary delegate difference (including Florida and Michigan) meaning that party elders and elected officials ultimately chose Obama as the candidate.

PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject

“If you care about democracy. If you care about woman’s health care. If you care about our future as a country, there is only one issue that counts—beating Donald Trump in November.”

—Joe Biden

“I'd vote for a dead Biden over a live Trump anyday.”

— Overheard at a gas station the morning after the debate

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Footnotes and Fun Stuff

1. That is without the top of the ticket dying or resigning like Nixon.

2. Though several did win elections outright after succeeding to the position on the death of their predecessor. Truman, LBJ, Coolidge, Teddy Roosevelt. etc.

3. After the primary season, in order to get Michigan and Florida back in the fold, the parties negotiated that they would count half of their delegates. The end result was that even though Hillary carried both states handily, Obama still had enough delegates to win.