The Newsom Presidential Race Paradox

He's Rising to Meet the Moment, or is He Being Elevated by a Crafty Adversary?

Gavin Newsom’s political gifts are remarkable. Even his political adversaries look at him and admire his talents, even if they don’t agree with him on anything. Not only does he have a long resume and pedigree in the public eye, he has a natural gift for the camera and an ease about him that few in politics have. We haven’t seen a person with this level of natural wit, charm, charisma, and intelligence since Bill Clinton.

That’s not the only thing he has in common with “Slick Willie.”

He has a penchant for the short term political position, constantly pivoting, triangulating and deflecting as political environments change. To be blunt, he blows with the wind. He does it so often and to such degree you really don’t know deep down what he truly believes; whether what he acts on is principle or issue as commodity. He’ll rally the troops for a cause, then slink into the background when that cause turns unpopular. In the past year, he’s demonstrated a level of flexibility across the spectrum as engaging with hardcore progressivism, sensible and pragmatic governance, centrism and moderation and conversing with the most die-hardest of die-hard MAGA nuts… in quick turnaround. On the one hand it shows the kind of open-mindedness and practicality we want in our elected leaders; on the other hand it showcases a chameleon-esque reframing of one’s character as fast as calendars change.

Here’s Andrew Egger from The Bulwark’s Morning Shots Newsletter basically coming from the same place:

For a normal adversary, Newsom would look like an easy target. Perhaps that is why Trump chose Los Angeles to make his ICE raids instead of say, Dallas, with a more compliant Governor. He wanted a lefty, loony, foil who would side with the protesters just like back in the post-Floyd protests when many progressive leaders sided with the “Defund the Police” screamers. I’d say that you could see the long game issues with such a position from the onset, but it turns out it wasn’t even much of a “long game.” People recoiled from Defund the Police pretty quickly once mass shoplifting skyrocketed and they had to seek a clerk to get a toothbrush now behind plastic. That’s what Trump wanted, someone who would oppose ICE and side with the protesters.

It didn’t turn out that way. Newsom has risen to the occasion time and time again. Newsom sided with law enforcement, particularly LAPD, from the get go. When Trump called up the National Guard, over Newsom’s authority, to escalate the situation under the pretext that an insurrection was occurring, Newsom countered the differences between the January 6th insurrection and the current small scale protests; particularly the differences in size, energy, and the fact Trump pardoned all of those who beat on Capitol Hill Police Officers on that day. Newsom then took Trump to court, with a hearing scheduled on Thursday. All the while, Newsom has supported LAPD, he has been reverential to our troops called up, he has been explanatory why having armed troops in any American setting is a horrible idea, and he has been an effective messenger against what Trump has been doing, effectively trolling the President time and time again. On Tuesday he gave a televised speech that was eloquent, descriptive to the issues and forces at work, powerful, and inspiring; this is the kind of leadership genuinely lacking on the Democratic side of the aisle for some time. One would argue that if the protesters would relent on some of their most anarchic tendencies, Newsom would be the perfect counter to Trump’s ridiculous antics and this situation would quickly resolve itself.

These events have pushed Newsom’s stock higher in Democratic circles as well. He had been previously mentioned as a potential 2028 candidate for the party, and he would be a formidable one. He’s certainly doing all the things that potential candidates do. Representing the most populous state that on it’s own is the fourth biggest economy in the world has it’s benefits. He excites young voters and can talk with progressives and moderates alike. His approval numbers and polling suggests he would be in the lead of potential nominees. He’d be a very strong candidate.

Not to put cold water on this, but it very well could be also that that is what Republicans want. When you take a step back and look at the bigger picture:

• He’s a former San Francisco Mayor, who has taken some very far left positions in the past. San Francisco has a lot of social problems, and it’s commonly depicted by the right as an uber-liberal nirvana dystopia. Every single lefty position Newsom has ever taken in San Fancisco, every one of them, will be showcased in a GOP ad at some point, bet on it. They could basically play ads saying he supported the furthest left positions on ANYTHING, even if he hadn’t, and it would be believed by most of the country. Don’t be surprised if they equate Newsom with Lenin, Castro or Hugo Chavez.

• He’s Governor of a state that the middle of the country looks at and dislikes immensely. Democrats are often criticized for not being able to relate to those outside of New York or L.A. and urban areas. “L.A. Liberal” is such a common refrain that Newsom may as well wear the moniker as a sash with it as a label. If you don’t think this is a huge problem, keep in mind that the last Democratic nominee also held a statewide position in California, also previously held a city position in San Francisco, and she was never able to shake the California Progressive label no matter how much she tried, and lost every single swing state she needed.

• Newsom’s level of “slick” also plays into that as well. Mid-Americans don’t like the consultant set, the overly polished, the “tell them what they want to hear” kind of people. They like unvarnished, honesty and genuineness (which is more of a feeling than it is whether a person is being actually honest or genuine with them). Newsom demonstrates none of these qualities. He’s like right out of central casting for a politician, and not in a good way.

• He has more waffles and flip-flops than an IHOP in Tampa. Ask John Kerry how that helps get elected.

• Let’s not forget, he was once married to this shrill woman, who at one point was engaged to Donald Trump Jr. and spoke at the Republican National Convention. It’s not the kind of association that plays well, even among the most liberal cadres of the Democratic Party.

Which is all to say, he has a lot of potential baggage that can be used against him if he were to run for President. If I were the Republican Party and I wanted to have the best candidate to run against in 2028, the only person I can see as being worse from a starting position on issue and branding perspective would be AOC. That’s not to say Newsom couldn’t overcome much of that; he has the political gifts to most definitely counter those attacks. Nonetheless, they’re out there and there are a lot of them.

The irony is that if we treat elections as if they are job interviews, and we want to elect the most qualified person for the job, who has the most experience, knowledge and the ability to meet world leaders on their level, Newsom would be an ideal person and a relatively perfect fit for the job. How he has handled the current Trump manufactured crisis in L.A. has been nothing short of brilliant, despite what the individual protesters are doing on the ground to undermine his efforts.¹

Unfortunately for him, we don’t usually elect Presidents that way.

PurpleAmerica’s Obscure Fact of the Day

Newsom went to Santa Clara University in California on a partial baseball scholarship. But he had to have surgery to repair a torn ulnar-collateral ligament and never played for the varsity team.

PurpleAmerica’s Final Word on the Subject

Newsom is a high risk high reward candidate. He has the skills. Will he get the opportunity? We’ll have to wait and see.

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Footnotes and Fun Stuff

1. And if you think the way he has handled the L.A. protests is an absolute plus, keep in mind that the lingering images of these events—cars burning, people waving Mexican flags and throwing stuff at cops— are NOT to his favor. What he has done has been great, what people remember about these events will not be.